Most California voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction, yet they intend to reelect the governor who’s leading us there. That seems wrongheaded.
But it’s explained by two modern-day realities. Political polarization has gripped all of America. And in California, most voters have lost all confidence in the Republican Party. They’ll choose most any Democrat over a GOP candidate, especially for statewide office.
That and the fact there are nearly twice as many Democratic voters as Republicans. Both parties are polarized, but it’s a lopsided matchup.
This was illustrated in a statewide survey released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.
With less than two weeks remaining before election day, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom leads Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle among likely voters by a virtually unsurmountable 55% to 36%. Newsom is ahead in every major region of the state except the Central Valley, where the two are statistically tied.
More voters intend to vote for Newsom than approve of his job performance, although the difference isn’t that much — 3 percentage points.
But another statistic is eye-opening: 54% of voters think California is “going in the wrong direction.” Only 43% believe we’re headed on the right path.
Yet, Newsom is running away with the election.
“To me, one of the biggest findings of the survey was that even at a time when 54% of voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction, the majority are willing to support the governor,” says Mark Baldassare, PPIC‘s president and pollster.
“That says a lot about the current political context. Voters are so polarized in California.”
The Democratic governor dominates politically on many things.
His decision to side with the California Teachers Association and oppose Proposition 30 may have doomed that ballot measure.
It would raise state income taxes on the richest Californians, mainly to help motorists buy electric vehicles — including drivers for ride-hailing Lyft, the measure’s big bankroller. The powerful CTA is opposed because schools would be cut out of the measure’s new tax revenue.
Newsom ran TV ads calling Proposition 30 “a Trojan horse” and a “terrible, terrible initiative.”
The new PPIC poll shows it trailing for the first time — 41% in favor, 52% against. A September survey before Newsom’s ads found the measure ahead, 55% to 40%.
“With a ballot proposition, the burden of proof is always on the ‘yes’ side,” Baldassare notes. “Certainly, doubts are raised when the governor says, ‘Don’t vote for it.’ And the CTA says, ‘Don’t vote for it.’
On another front, Newsom was strong enough to set up the pathetic excuse for the campaign’s only gubernatorial debate.
The timing was almost laughable: At 1 in the afternoon on a beautiful fall Sunday. If voters weren’t enjoying themselves outside, they were probably watching pro football on TV.
Newsom tried to morph Dahle into a MAGA Trump disciple. He called his underdog opponent a “passionate supporter” of the former president, who’s the devil incarnate among California Democrats.
A Trump voter, yes, but never with any sign of passion.
Dahle attacked Newsom as a governor who’s so busy running for president that he’s ignoring his own state’s problems of homelessness and unaffordability.
If there was any news out of the debate it came when a moderator asked Newsom whether he’d commit to serving a full four-year term, thus passing up a possible 2024 presidential run.
“Yes,” the governor replied.
But we’ve heard that before from other politicians. It’s a pledge that can be quickly broken without much of a penalty.
Ask Newsom again a year from now — after he’s reelected despite people being unhappy with the direction the state’s heading.
George Skelton is a Los Angeles Times columnist.
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