Bay Area storms: Another round of ‘dangerous’ wind, rain expected to hit region

Another windy deluge could send some streams over their banks and cause widespread power outages across the Bay Area over the next couple days, marking the latest salvo from an ongoing parade of winter storms that shows no sign of relenting any time soon.

The latest atmospheric river-fed storm is expected to pack damaging winds and drop several more inches of rain over much of the Bay Area — a double-whammy that forecasters say should peak Monday morning and linger through Tuesday. Even more storms are forecast to make landfall beginning later this week — threatening to further saturate soils during one of the Bay Area’s most waterlogged stretches in recent years.

On Sunday afternoon, Gov. Gavin Newsom implored Californians to avoid driving through flooded roadways and to prepare for even more water in the near future — noting that 12 people had died over the last week and a half due to storms across the state.

“Use your common sense,” Newsom said at a press conference. “Don’t test fate… just a foot of water and your car’s floating. So it’s really important that people are mindful, and again, just use their common sense.”

The National Weather Service issued a flood warning for areas along the Guadalupe River above the Almaden Expressway in San Jose. The river is expected to reach its flood state of 9.5 feet by 9 a.m. Monday before cresting at 11.5 feet at about 4 p.m. that day.

A flood watch also exists through Tuesday for almost the entire Bay Area. Alameda Creek near Niles Canyon and Sunol could reach its flood stage of 9 feet on Monday morning before cresting that afternoon, just shy of its 14-foot, 9-inch record. Also at risk of topping their banks were Arroyo de la Laguna at Verona in Alameda County and the San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz County.

On Sunday afternoon, Santa Clara County officials issued evacuation warnings — essentially, advisements to be prepared to leave a moment’s notice — to people living in the watershed areas of the Uvas Reservoir and Pacheco Pass River Basin, due to flooding concerns. The warnings are impacting roughly 1,600 people, according to the county.

“This is going to be dangerous,” said Brayden Murdock, a National Weather Service meteorologist.

Updated forecast rainfall totals for round 2, expected to begin tonight between 10 pm and midnight. The heaviest rain will occur between 4 am and 4 pm Monday. Slight lowering of totals from the Bay Area northward and southern valleys. More details in follow up tweet.#CAwx

1/x pic.twitter.com/zs2HzaehAH

— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) January 8, 2023

Standing under a break in the clouds on Sunday in San Francisco’s Potrero Hill neighborhood, Becky Luong expressed fatigue at the unrelenting pace of storms. Her home’s garage in the Portola neighborhood was flooded with about an inch of water during Wednesday’s storm — ruining several pairs of shoes stored down there and leaving damaged a few bags of concrete.

“I’ve never experienced such a big storm like this,” said Luong, who has lived in the city for close to three decades. “It is the wind that makes it worse. This is different. I got scared.”

“I’m tired,” she added, about the recent wet weather. “I’m so grateful to see the sun today.”

Nearby, Nick Bulley waited in line for workers to fill his car with sandbags to protect his house in the hilly Twin Peaks neighborhood. The backyard and first floor of his newly renovated home were flooded during the New Year’s Eve storm with an inch of water, likely causing thousands of dollars in damage. On Sunday, he ran a dehumidifier to suck up all the moisture and limit the cost of repairs.

“This was just an unusual event,” Bulley said. “We weren’t prepared. We didn’t have sandbags. Now we’re making sure we have something to at least toss in front of the doors.”

The heaviest downpours should begin to subside by midday Monday, Murdock said, though chances for additional precipitation should linger through Tuesday. Most of the Bay Area — including San Francisco and Oakland — could see 2 to 3 inches of rain by Tuesday, the weather service said. San Jose is expected to see a little more than 2 inches from this storm.

The heaviest rainfall should fall over the waterlogged Santa Cruz Mountains, where 5 to 7 inches of rain is expected, with a few places seeing as much as 8 inches. To the south, the Santa Lucia Mountains along the Big Sur coast could see 8 to 12 inches of rain in some spots.

In addition, howling winds could once again raise the risk of power outages from trees falling onto power lines.

Winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected across much of the Bay Area’s lower-lying regions, with gusts potentially hitting 60 mph, the National Weather Service said while issuing a high wind warning. Along the coast and the Bay Area’s peaks, forecasters are expecting winds of 35 to 50 mph and gusts of up to 80 mph.

“This is also going to be a wind event,” said Murdock, adding that “when you do have strong winds after seeing plenty of moisture in the soil, you can see trees fall.”

The storm marks the latest atmospheric river to drench Northern California over the last couple of weeks, whipsawing the region from one of its driest three-year runs in recorded history to a state of perpetual flood risk. Oakland, for example, has received 15.84 inches of rain since Dec. 1 — almost all of it in the last two weeks. That’s more than two-thirds of the 22.89 inches of rain it normally gets in a calendar year.

Still, even though the recent wet weather has begun to alleviate drought conditions across Northern California, experts say even more moisture is needed to put an end the region’s historic drought. Water levels at some of the state’s largest reservoirs — including Lake Shasta, Lake Oroville and Trinity Lake — remain below historical averages for this time of year, even though some have started to tick upward in recent weeks.

Later this week, more storm systems are expected to begin hitting Northern California, each fed by atmospheric rivers streaming across the Pacific Ocean. While none of them are expected to be as powerful as the storm hitting late Sunday night and Monday, they could still cause flood damage in parts of the Bay Area, said Michael Anderson, California state climatologist.

He said that federal resources have been mobilized to help the National Weather Service’s forecasts. Five Air Force C-130s and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration aircraft are flying over the Pacific Ocean – reaching as far as Hawaii – to gather data on the coming storms.

“These next storms are really going to start seeing some flood stages be reached,” said Anderson, during a call with reporters Saturday. “There’s a lot to keep an eye on and a lot to track.”

For more on the latest emergency warnings, go to aware.zonehaven.com.

High Wind Warning has been issued for our region starting tonight at 8 PM into Monday 4 PM. Expect southerly winds near 20 to 35 mph with gust up to 60 mph in the valley locations and 35 to 50 mph with gust up 80 mph along the coast and highest peaks. #CAwx #highwind pic.twitter.com/VbzaXV22ez

— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) January 8, 2023