Best of the West: Pac-12, MW bubble teams must finish strong for region to dodge doom on Selection Sunday

Two months from Selection Sunday, the outlook is somewhat bleak for college basketball in the western third of the country.

ESPN’s latest Bracketology predictions show just seven NCAA Tournament bids (combined) for the Mountain West, Pac-12 and WCC.

Bracket Matrix, which aggregates projections from various websites, shows the same.

The CBS Sports is slightly more optimistic, with eight bids spread across the three leagues.

The Athletic’s version shows the same.

Slice and dice the data however you’d like. The premier basketball conferences in the Pacific and Mountain Time Zones need strong finishes from teams on the bubble — that’s Arizona State and New Mexico, Utah and UNLV, Colorado and Boise State — to avoid doom on March 12.

(NET rankings through Wednesday’s games)

1. UCLA (14-2/5-0 Pac-12)

Last week: 2Results: beat USC 60-58Next up: vs. Utah (Thursday)NET ranking: 7Comment: The case for UCLA as a No. 1 seed remains flimsy given the Bruins’ lack of Quadrant I victories (two) compared to other teams in the mix. That could change. Or not.

2. Arizona (14-2/3-2 (Pac-12)

Last week: 1Results: beat Washington 70-67, lost to WSU 74-61Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)NET ranking: 9Comment: Of the Wildcats’ 14 wins, five are of the Quadrant IV nature (36 percent). That will change during conference play, but perhaps not to the degree Arizona needs.

3. Gonzaga (14-3/3-0 WCC)

Last week: 3Results: won at USF 77-75 and Santa Clara 81-76Next up: at Brigham Young (Thursday)NET ranking: 12Comment: It doesn’t appear the Zags have enough schedule juice remaining to claim a No. 1 seed. That work needed to be completed in non-conference play, and they didn’t quite clear the bar.

4. San Diego State (13-3/4-0 MW)

Last week: 4Results: won at Wyoming 80-75, beat Nevada 74-65Next up: vs. New Mexico (Saturday)NET ranking: 21Comment: The sizzling Aztecs have one loss since November (to Saint Mary’s) and a defense that has held nine of the past 10 opponents under 70 points.

5. Saint Mary’s (14-4/3-0 WCC)

Last week: 5Results: beat Portland 85-43Next up: vs. LMU (Thursday)NET ranking: 11Comment: We aren’t prepared to call the Gaels a lock for the NCAAs, but that day is fast approaching.

6. Arizona State (13-3/4-1 Pac-12)

Last week: 9Results: beat WSU 77-71 and Washington 73-65Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)NET ranking: 56Comment: Every loss by San Francisco in West Coast Conference play — so far, there have been three — makes ASU’s 37-point whiff look that much worse.

7. Utah (12-5/5-1 Pac-12)

Last week: 6Results: beat OSU 79-60, lost to Oregon 70-60Next up: at UCLA (Thursday)NET ranking: 43Comment: The Utes don’t have many chances remaining for Quad I wins, but two come this weekend in L.A. They need a split, at minimum.

8. New Mexico (15-2/2-2 MW)

Last week: 7Results: lost to UNLV 84-77, beat Oral Roberts 82-75Next up: at San Diego State (Saturday)NET ranking: 49Comment: Huge game for the Mountain West on Saturday at Viejas Arena. For several reasons, the collective needs the Lobos to prevail.

9. Nevada (14-4/4-1 MW)

Last week: NRResults: won at San Jose State 67-40, lost at SDSU 74-65Next up: vs. Utah State (Friday)NET ranking: 34Comment: Who figured an 18-point home win over Sam Houston in late November would become a resume-enhancing victory.

10. Colorado (11-6/3-3)

Last week: NRResults: beat Oregon 68-41 and OSU 62-42Next up: at USC (Thursday)NET ranking: 60Comment: The selection committee might need to carve out an hour to debate CU’s resume if the Buffaloes remain relevant down the stretch.

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