Picked seventh in the Pac-12’s preseason media poll, the Sun Devils are alone in second place thanks to a transfer-heavy starting lineup and scrappy defense.

They are 6-1 in league play for the first time since the early 1980s and have the best chance to provide the conference with a third NCAA Tournament berth, alongside UCLA and Arizona.

But that’s just one of the Tempe twists unfolding as we hit the midway point of the regular season.

Here’s the other: ASU’s greatest vulnerability is typically one of the program’s greatest strengths.

Coach Bobby Hurley has always been willing to play anyone, anywhere — from Kentucky and Kansas to Virginia and Baylor — and typically boasts one of the strongest non-conference schedules in the Pac-12.

But this year, ASU owns one of the weakest. If the Sun Devils end the season on the NCAA Tournament bubble, that could be their undoing.

What does the data say?

ASU’s non-conference schedule is No. 182 nationally, and ninth in the Pac-12, in the well-regarded Pomeroy efficiency ratings.

And in the all-important NET rankings used by the NCAA selection committee, 60 percent of ASU’s 15 victories are of the Quadrant III (below average) and Quadrant IV (poor) variety.

One reason: The Sun Devils played three teams from the Southwestern Athletic Conference (Grambling, Texas Southern and Alcorn State), plus Tarleton from the WAC and Northern Arizona from the Big Sky.

In other words, five of the 11 non-conference opponents (45 percent) are typically viewed as creampuffs.

That said, scheduling depends on both foresight and fortune. Hurley also scheduled a handful of high-level games against opponents whose seasons haven’t gone as expected:

— Michigan was No. 22 in the AP preseason poll but is just 10-7 overall.

— SMU, which won 24 games last year, is a paltry 6-12 this season.

— Nor does it help that ASU lost by 37 points at San Francisco, which is near the bottom of the West Coast Conference.

The Sun Devils are No. 40 in the NET rankings that stand at the heart of the NCAA Tournament selection process, suggesting a position on the bubble.

If that range holds into March, the committee will compare ASU’s non-conference wins, losses and strength-of-schedule to those of other teams on the bubble.

It will find that Hurley attempted to challenge his team a handful of times but also scheduled a slew of low-level foes. Some members might look favorably on the lineup; others might grimace.

The Sun Devils’ best path forward is to remove the risk.

Don’t wobble down the stretch. Don’t lose games they shouldn’t lose. Don’t finish on the bubble and, above all, don’t give the committee any chance to decide they aren’t worth of an at-large bid.

If the Sun Devils keep winning, the non-conference schedule could knock them down a few notches in the brackets, but it won’t keep them out of the tournament.

To the power ratings…

(NET rankings through Monday)

1. UCLA (16-2/7-0)

Last week: 1Results: beat Utah 68-49 and Colorado 68-54Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)NET ranking: 6Comment: The Bruins have enough Quad I games left to make their case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs, but because of the Pac-12’s collective weakness, there is little margin for error in the resume-building process

2. Arizona State (15-3/6-1)

Last week: 3Results: won at Oregon 90-73 and OSU 74-69Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)NET ranking: 40Comment: BracketMatrix.com, which aggregates dozens of NCAA projections, currently slots ASU on the 10-seed line. Sweep this weekend, and the Devils will assuredly jump to No. 7 or 8.

3. Arizona (15-3/4-3)

Last week: 2Results: won at OSU 86-74, lost at Oregon 87-68Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)NET ranking: 13Comment: No need to panic, yet. But if the perimeter inefficiency is unchanged a month from now, the Wildcats will have cause for alarm.

4. USC (13-5/5-2)

Last week: 8Results: beat Colorado 68-61 and Utah 71-56Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)NET ranking: 67Comment: Why the jump from No. 8? Because the Hotline has grown weary of all the Mountain school mediocrity and was in the mood for a change.

5. Utah (12-7/5-3)

Last week: 4Results: lost at UCLA 68-49 and USC 71-56Next up: vs. Washington State (Thursday)NET ranking: 63Comment: The Utes are 1-3 against the top half of the conference and 4-0 against the bottom half — a huge improvement over last season but not enough to get them into the NCAAs.

6. Colorado (11-8/3-5)

Last week: 5Results: lost at USC 68-61 and UCLA 68-54Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)NET ranking: 60Comment: The softest stretch of the conference schedule has arrived. Will the Buffs take advantage? It’s all about avoiding the No. 8-9 game in Las Vegas.

7. Oregon (10-8/4-3)

Last week: 6Results: lost to ASU 90-73, beat Arizona 87-68Next up: at Cal (Wednesday)NET ranking: 68Comment: The Ducks merely need to sweep the Bay Area to generate real momentum. It’s so close, and yet — quite possibly — so far away.

8. Washington State (9-10/4-4)

Last week: 7Results: beat Cal 66-51 and Stanford 60-59Next up: at Utah (Thursday)NET ranking: 71Comment: The NET ranking doesn’t match the loss total, except nine of the 10 are of the Quad I and II variety.

9. Washington (11-8/3-5)

Last week: 10Results: beat Stanford 86-69 and Cal 81-78 (OT)Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)NET ranking: 128Comment: Good thing the Huskies secured that victory over Cal. From the looks of the schedule, their next win won’t be coming for many, many weeks.

10. Cal (3-15/2-5)

Last week: 11Results: lost at WSU 66-51 and Washington 81-78 (OT)Next up: vs. Oregon (Wednesday)NET ranking: 249Comment: We didn’t realize the Bears are taking a religious studies course on the life of Lazarus.

11. Oregon State (11-7/1-6)

Last week: 9Results: lost to Arizona 86-74 and ASU 74-69Next up: at Stanford (Thursday)NET ranking: 229Comment: The Beavers have three losses by five points or less. The opponents in those instances: ASU, USC and Duke.

12. Stanford (5-12/0-7)

Last week: 12Results: lost at Washington 86-69 and WSU 60-59Next up: vs. Oregon State (Thursday)NET ranking: 151Comment: We didn’t hesitate to put Stanford in the 12th spot. Given the state of affairs on the bottom tier of this conference, that’s quite an indictment.

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We won’t know whether it qualifies as a lopsided victory or narrow escape until later this week. While Monday is the deadline for early entrants to declare for the April draft, news will trickle out for several days. Some prospects simply aren’t interested in announcing their decisions on social media. (Imagine that!)

However, enough stay-or-go decisions have been made public for the Hotline to offer preliminary judgment …

Arizona

Our verdict: winnerComment: The Wildcats aren’t loaded with pro prospects but have retained three key players: tailback Michael Wiley, receiver Jacob Cowing and left tackle Jordan Morgan. The least-known of the trio outside of Tucson, Morgan’s decision is the most important. He might have jumped into the draft if not for a season-ending knee injury against UCLA. Assuming good health for the start of the season, Morgan will be one of the Pac-12’s best at a high-value position.

Arizona State

Our verdict: case dismissedComment: Several key players are out of eligibility, including star linebacker Kyle Soelle, while other starters have transferred. (Offensive lineman LaDarius Henderson is heading to Michigan, for example.) But the direct damage to ASU from draft decisions is minimal as new coach Kenny Dillingham works to retool the roster.

Cal

Our verdict: winnerComment: We considered dismissing this case, as well, since the Bears weren’t exactly loaded with draft-eligible talent. However, one key stay-or-go decision went the direction they hoped: Jackson Sirmon, a first-team all-conference linebacker, will return for the 2023 season. We should mention that punter Jamieson Sheahan declared for the draft — not because of the ramifications for next season as much as because we get a kick out of punters declaring for the draft.

Colorado

Our verdict: case dismissedComment: Much like ASU, the Buffaloes had a limited number of players whose NFL decisions would impact the trajectory of the program, for better or worse, in 2023. (It’s all about coach Deion Sanders working the transfer portal.) The departure of receiver Daniel Arias isn’t nearly significant enough for a verdict.

Oregon

Our verdict: winnerComment: The biggest news broke a week before Christmas, when quarterback Bo Nix announced his plan to return. But he’s not alone in that endeavor. Offensive lineman Steven Jones passed on the draft. So did linebacker Mase Funa. Defensive linemen Brandon Dorlus, Casey Rodgers and Popo Aumavae are returning, too. (The Ducks will be stacked up front.) However, two of the top defensive players in the conference, inside linebacker Noah Sewell and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, a potential first-round pick, are turning pro.

Oregon State

Our verdict: loser (by a hair)Comment: Many of OSU’s key players have used up their eligibility — cornerback Rejzohn Wright, for example — and another anchor, linebacker Omar Speights, is transferring. The list of top talents who had the opportunity to return for the ’23 season and instead chose to enter the draft features cornerback Alex Austin and tight end Luke Musgrave. As a counterweight, the Beavers got good news on the draft front from safety Kitan Oladapo.

Stanford

Our verdict: loserComment: This ruling shouldn’t come as much surprise — very little has gone right for Stanford over the past 18-24 months. Quarterback Tanner McKee declared for the draft in early December, perhaps a year too late. (His value plunged to such an extent during Stanford’s dismal season that the university should offer him compensatory damages.) And not for nothing: The Cardinal also lost all-conference cornerback Kyu Blue Kelly. It wasn’t long ago that Stanford possessed enough players with high-end draft value to create drama at the deadline.

UCLA

Our verdict: loserComment: The Hotline delayed judgment on the Bruins until word from Westwood arrived at lunchtime Monday that star tailback Zach Charbonnet is headed to the NFL. (No surprise: He’s the rare tailback who warrants a high-round valuation.) Charbonnet joins a slew of teammates who have already declared, including receiver Kaz Allen and offensive lineman Jon Gaines. However, a key decision isn’t yet public: edge rusher Laiatu Latu.

USC

Our verdict: loserComment: This decision carries slightly more nuance than you might expect. Yes, the Trojans took a combination punch to the gut with the losses of star receiver Jordan Addison and the top defensive player in the conference, lineman Tuli Tulipulotu. However, offensive lineman Justin Dedich and linebacker Shane Lee are returning. And a vital point: Quarterback Caleb Williams isn’t eligible for the draft until the spring of 2024, thus limiting the range of outcomes for the Trojans.

Utah

Our verdict: winnerComment: The Utes lost a hefty amount of talent but still emerged as a winner in the declaration game, primarily because quarterback Cam Rising is coming back (although his health remains an issue following a serious leg injury in the Rose Bowl). Top receiver Devaughn Vele and all-conference tight end Brant Kuithe are returning, too. That said, the Utes lost Clark Phillips III, perhaps the top cornerback in the conference, along with tight end Dalton Kincaid and linebackers Gabe Reid and Mohamoud Diabate.

Washington

Our verdict: winner (by a landslide)Comment: The Huskies lost their starting tailback (Wayne Taulapapa) and a key edge rusher (Jeremiah Martin) but nonetheless finished as the Pac-12’s biggest winner. Because quarterback Michael Penix is returning. So are his favorite targets, receivers Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. And edge rushers Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui. And mammoth defensive tackle Tuli Letuligasenoa. And all-conference left guard Troy Fautanu. Tally it up, and those seven form the core of what should be a preseason top-10 team.

Washington State

Our verdict: winnerComment: The Cougars were hit hard by the transfer portal but received good, if somewhat limited news on the draft front. All-conference edge rushers Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson are returning. Their presence ensures that if the Cougars’ front seven regresses — the linebacking unit was hit hard by attrition — the scope will be limited.

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Theme of the week: UCLA’s dominance

The Bruins whacked Utah and Colorado to stay undefeated in conference play and remain in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Four different players scored in double figures, and freshman Adem Bona continued to develop as an athletic, frontcourt force. So sound were the Bruins with their execution that they won by a combined 33 points despite shooting 29.7 percent from 3-point range.

Theme of the week II: Mountain slide

A visit to Los Angeles provided Utah and Colorado premium opportunities to bolster their NCAA resumes with quality road wins and plant themselves squarely in the conference race. Instead, they went 0-4 against USC and UCLA, with three losses by double digits. As a result of the winless weekend, the Utes have fallen into fourth place while the Buffaloes are closer to last than to first.

Theme of the season: NCAA Tournament outlook

The Pac-12 looks more like a three-bid league (at most) with each passing week. UCLA and Arizona are locks for at-large spots, but the second tier is rapidly thinning as Colorado, Utah, USC, Oregon and Washington State struggle for traction. At this point, the best bet to snag a third bid is Arizona State, which has climbed to No. 41 in the NET rankings — a placement indicative of bubble teams.

Team of the week: Arizona State

The Sun Devils rallied from a 16-point first-half deficit to edge Oregon State on Saturday and complete a weekend sweep. They have won four in a row and are one game back of UCLA with a showdown in Tempe upcoming. Picked seventh in the Pac-12 preseason media poll, ASU is 6-1 in conference play for the first time since 1980-81.

Escapes of the week: Washington schools

The Huskies and Cougars dodged what would have been embarrassing home losses on Saturday. UW trailed Cal by double digits in the second half but won in overtime and WSU repelled Stanford’s upset bid in the final seconds. Neither Bay Area team has won a road game all season.

Game of the week: Washington 81, Cal 78 (OT)

Drama was in short supply with eight of the 12 games decided by double digits, and this Saturday evening affair in Seattle carried no implications for the conference race. But it was taut nonetheless as the Huskies rallied from 10 points down with nine minutes remaining. UW forward Keion Brooks scored late in regulation to force overtime, then made two free throws with four seconds left in the extra period to secure the victory.

Player of the week: ASU’s Desmond Cambridge Jr.

The transfer from Nevada scored 21 points in each game in Oregon, leading the Sun Devils on both occasions. (No other player scored more than 15 points.) Cambridge’s efficiency was superb: He tallied 42 total points on just 30 field goal attempts. Add a handful of steals and blocks, and he was an easy call for Player of the Week.

Singular performance of the week: Oregon’s N’Faly Dante

The oft-injured big man is healthy and playing to the potential that made him a five-star prospect in high school. Saturday, he scored 22 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, made 9-of-11 field goals and outplayed Arizona’s elite frontcourt tandem of Oumar Ballo and Azuolas Tubelis, who combined for 24 points and 13 rebounds.

Stat of the week: Home rule

Pac-12 home teams won nine of 12 games over the weekend and, after a rough start to league play, are 17-5 the past two weeks.

Recovery of the week: Oregon

The Ducks are setting a standard for inconsistency that will be difficult for anyone in the conference to match. Their latest submission took the form of a 17-point home loss to Arizona State followed by a 19-point home victory over Arizona. The 48-hour roller coaster came one week after a wild Mountain trip in which the Ducks were blown out at Colorado but beat Utah handily.

Fortuitous timing of the month: Washington State

The Cougars were without leading scorer TJ Bamba (hand injury) but were fortunate that his absence came at home against the Bay Area schools. WSU managed a sweep to keep pace with the group of teams competing for an opening-round bye in the Pac-12 tournament.

Struggle of the century: Stanford

The Cardinal is 0-7 in league play after getting swept in Washington and hurtling toward its worst season since the early-90s. (All five non-conference wins are all of the Quadrant IV variety.) Hired in 2016, coach Jerod Haase has yet to make the NCAA Tournament or seriously contend for the Pac-12 title. His future looks more perilous by the game.

Game of the new week: UCLA at Arizona State (Thursday)

In a twist, UCLA’s visit to Tempe, not Tucson, is the more significant game of the desert swing. Arizona State is just one game back, while Arizona is a full three games behind. (Tipoff at Desert Financial Arena is 7:30 p.m. on FS1.) If they sweep, the Bruins will return home with a commanding lead in the conference race.

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1. Utah’s band is back together

Quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe announced they’re returning for the 2023 season, instantly elevating the Utes to contender status in what should be a loaded conference.

There is one significant unknown in Salt Lake City, however: Rising’s health. He suffered a serious leg or knee injury in the Rose Bow that, according to coach Kyle Whittingham, will require a prolonged recovery.

Utah should open the season in the top-25, and perhaps in the top-15. If Rising is near (at) 100 percent when conference play begins (Sept. 23), the Utes have a real chance to become the first team in the Pac-12’s expansion era to win three consecutive titles.

2. More good news for Washington

Star receiver Rome Odunze became the latest Husky to announce his return in ’23, following the path of fellow wideout Jalen McMillan, edge rushers Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui, left tackle Troy Fautanu and some dude named Penix.

Odunze was a first-team all-conference selection and, with McMillan, forms the best receiver tandem in the Pac-12. (They combined for 16 touchdowns and more than 2,000 yards.)

UW was the hottest team west of Fort Worth at the end of the season and, with so many key players returning, should start ’23 in the top-10, with designs on the College Football Playoff.

3. Big exit from the Big Ten

After three uneventful years (massive sarcasm), commissioner Kevin Warren is leaving the conference to become president of the Chicago Bears — a move that carries repercussions for near-term realignment.

Warren made no secret of his desire to continue expanding the Big Ten, potentially with Washington, Oregon and the Bay Area schools to form a West Coast division that would kill off the Pac-12. But he was at the mercy of the university presidents, who don’t have the interest, and the league’s media partners, who don’t have the money.

There’s little chance of the Big Ten making another expansion move in the coming months as it searches for a commissioner, giving the Pac-12 room to breathe.

4. Pac-12 schedule on hold

Fans across the footprint are awaiting the release of the 2023 conference schedule, which has been delayed for unspecified reasons. However, external developments suggest the process is nearing completion.

Both the ACC and Big 12 are expected to unveil their schedules before the end of January. Because ESPN and Fox make programming decisions for all the Power Five conferences — each network slots games into a master grid across four time zones — resolution for two leagues indicates the puzzle is almost solved.

5. Week Zero plans nixed

Clarity came to one aspect of the ’23 conference schedule after the NCAA reportedly denied a Pac-12 request to switch the Colorado-Arizona State game to the final Saturday in August (aka: Week Zero).

The conference wanted to move the game in order to prevent one, or both, of the participants from having to play nine consecutive weeks. (That case wasn’t strong enough for the NCAA, which is forever worried about precedent.)

Whether the ASU-Colorado situation was the final snag in the Pac-12’s scheduling process is not known.

6. Transfer portal mayhem

The movement of players has slowed, but hardly stopped, since the chaotic stretch in early December.

This week, Cal grabbed a little-known quarterback, Sam Jackson V, who spent this season as TCU’s third stringer, while Washington lost a high-profile passer: Sam Huard, the former mega-recruit with deep UW bloodlines, will seek playing time elsewhere.

But the most impactful move came in Corvallis, where all-conference linebacker Omar Speights bid adieu to Oregon State and entered the portal. Without the tackling machine as an anchor, the Beavers must retool their linebacking unit.

7. Pac-12 Networks on the move

The conference announced last spring that it would seek an alternative location for its production studios once the pricey lease in San Francisco expired in the summer of 2023.

On Wednesday, the location of the new facility became public: The East Bay city of San Ramon, which isn’t far from the Pac-12’s former, longtime home in Walnut Creek.

The 42,000-square foot office space will house the production studios needed for the networks, in whatever form they take — a streaming-only platform seems likely — during the next media rights cycle.

8. March Madness expansion on hold

The NCAA’s Board of Directors on Thursday approved a recommendation to expand the size of championship events to match the number of schools that sponsor the particular sport.

For the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, the fields would need to expand to 90 teams (approximately) to meet the recommended threshold for the 360-something programs in Division I.

However, the governing board referred the final decision to each sport’s specific oversight committee. In the case of March Madness, the men’s and women’s selection committees will ultimately determine whether or not to expand.

We expect a verdict on the highly-nuanced issue sometime this summer.

9. A legend passes

Former USC running back Charles White passed away Wednesday, at the age of 64, following a fight with cancer.

White won the Heisman Trophy in 1979, was the headliner on several of the greatest teams in conference history — the Trojans were 42-6-1 during his four seasons — and remains the Pac-12’s career rushing leader with 6,245 yards.

Nobody is close.

10. Key deadline approaches

Monday is the final day for early-entry candidates to declare for the NFL Draft.

Thus far, the Pac-12 has received more good news than bad, but there are typically a slew of last-minute decisions that carry a wallop. And in some cases, players don’t reveal their decisions until the deadline has come and gone.

Be ready for a Pac-12 surprise, or three.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

The dates of the 2023 conference games haven’t been finalized, but the opponents for each team are known. Do you agree that Utah has the toughest out-of-conference schedule and Oregon has the toughest in-conference schedule? — Jon Joseph

Sure, you could make the case for Utah, which plays Florida at home, Baylor on the road and Weber State. Anytime two of the three opponents are Power Five programs, the challenge is substantial.

But Colorado typically plays one of the toughest non-conference lineups, and 2023 is no exception. The Buffaloes open on the road against TCU, then host Nebraska and also play Colorado State.

Granted, Weber State is a quality FCS program. But the Hotline would prefer to face Utah’s trio of opponents.

And let’s not discount Washington’s schedule. The Huskies visit Michigan State, and they host Boise State, which should have a top-25 team, and Tulsa.

When the weakest opponent (purportedly) is a five-win team from the American, there are no cupcakes.

And yes, the conference schedule rotation for 2023 is set. In fact, the Hotline published all the schedules (in cross-division format) a few years ago.

Oregon plays everyone in the old North division, plus USC (home) and Utah (road).

But I’d argue the toughest intra-conference lineup belongs to Cal, which is set to face not only the Northwest schools but also USC, Utah and UCLA, plus Colorado.

Oh, and the Bears play Auburn, as well.

Do you think mass roster overhauls each year at the “big brand” schools is sustainable, or will the approach to player development at Utah and Oregon State be the winning formula in the future? You can’t buy culture and identity in my opinion. — @DrBTru

You most definitely cannot, and the model at work in Corvallis and Salt Lake City is humming for those programs.

The massive roster turnover that we have seen at Arizona, ASU, USC and Colorado (to name four) isn’t sustainable; nor is it necessarily intended to be.

The process works well for new coaching staffs and allows for rapid recovery. But in most cases, transfers eventually will be used to supplement the roster, not define it.

Remember, the supply chain remains clogged — and will, for two more years — because of the free season of eligibility resulting from COVID.

Do you see a scenario where name, image and likeness (NIL) collectives enter into contractual agreements with the players? For example, a player commits to a school for two years for X amount but has to pay it back if he leaves early. — @cubsfan7331

That situation already exists. Players are signing NIL contracts all the time.

At some point, the NIL market will settle. After all, the boosters supplying the cash have fat wallets for a reason: They are smart businessmen and businesswomen who aren’t likely to continue writing five-figure checks for backup guards.

NIL will continue to be used (improperly) as a recruiting inducement, but with the cash and contracts focused on the high-value positions. In fact, that process is already underway in the shadows.

Now that commissioner Kevin Warren is leaving the Big Ten, do you still think USC and UCLA will make the jump? — @MsMichelleYoung

What do you think the chances are of either the L.A. schools having buyer’s remorse in a few years and wanting to come back to the Pac-12? — @LondonUte

The L.A. schools are gone, regardless of Warren’s departure to the Bears and regardless of the Big Ten’s choice to succeed him.

They are entering the conference on Aug. 2, 2024 no matter what.

But buyer’s remorse is a distinct possibility, in our opinion, particularly for UCLA. The Bruins aren’t equipped financially to thrive in their early years in the Big Ten. They are entering the conference, as Maryland and Rutgers once did, with a mountain of debt.

The expected cash windfall from Big Ten media rights likely will be used to eat away at UCLA’s debt, for which the athletic department is fully responsible.

Meanwhile, the competition (USC, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.) will be reinvesting its cash.

We foresee the Bruins falling behind immediately and struggling to catch up. By the late 2020s, there could be a load of disgruntled UCLA fans.

Could the Pac-12 sign a non-conference game package with UCLA and USC to play one game each year? This will assure two games against an L.A. team every year, help the media rights negotiations and keep the Pac-12 in the L.A.  market. — Jack Sunabe

The issue here is timing: The Pac-12’s media negotiations are closer to the end than the beginning (presumably), which doesn’t carve much space for the crafting of a formal scheduling partnership.

However, I suspect the Bruins and Trojans will make an attempt to continue playing Cal and Stanford as often as possible.

The last thing either L.A. school wants is a heavy load of travel for non-conference games.

What’s the likelihood that any new schools rumored to be potential additions in the Pac-12 — be it San Diego State, Fresno State, SMU or some other program — get announced before the start of next season? — @aka_branderson

How about the Pac-12 pulling a surprise move and offering San Diego State and locking up the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area by getting SMU and TCU? — @RockDawg3

If the Pac-12 expands — and that’s hardly a guarantee — then a decision will come well before the start of the 2023 season. I expect the issue to be resolved this spring, in fact.

TCU certainly would make sense as a partner for SMU if the Pac-12 desires a foothold in Texas, but it’s an unlikely outcome.

If the Big 12 schools have signed the grant-of-rights agreement that accompanies the renewal of their contract with ESPN and Fox, nobody is going anywhere. They are all locked into the conference until 2031.

If the grant-of-rights contract remains unsigned — a distinct possibility given that the conference hasn’t formally announced the new media deal — then any outcome is possible, however remote it appears.

If the Pac-12 goes back to divisions, do Washington fans have the right to be absolutely livid at this one year dumpster fire set of rules? — @LocustAutoX

Nope, because 1) it’s a multi-year change that could very well be permanent, and 2) the elimination of division was approved by all the schools.

Instead of being livid at the conference, UW fans should be frustrated that the Huskies lost to Arizona State.

Win that game, and they would have played for the conference title.

Do you think the NCAA denying the Pac-12’s request to move the Colorado-Arizona State game to Week Zero had more to do with rival conferences (and networks) wanting to protect their own Week Zero games? — @em_buff

My sense is the decision was based on the NCAA not wanting to set a precedent that would allow dozens of teams to justify playing on Week Zero every season.

In our view, the NCAA should move the football calendar up one week, because it would create flexibility during the fall for a second bye.

Will that ever happen? The schedule for the expanded playoff, with opening-round games in the middle of December, could impact decisions with the calendar.

When is the Pac-12’s 2023 schedule expected to be announced? — @rreid32

I don’t have a firm date but anticipate a release in the next 10 days or two weeks.

If Denver fans/media are right and former Stanford coach David Shaw is interviewing to be Jim Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator with the Broncos, what TV show would this reunion most resemble? — @WorkishFromHome

There would be plenty of material for Divorce Court.

Does Cal’s new apparel deal with Nike get the Bears out of athletic budget hell? — @SirCharles_OG

I haven’t seen the contract or heard a whisper number on the cash component, but it’s unlikely to be substantial — certainly not close to the $3.5 million in cash the Bears were supposed to receive annually from Under Armour.

And regardless of the value, the deal won’t have a major impact on Cal’s financial situation.

Between the enormous scope (i.e., cost) of the athletic program and the stadium debt service payments, the Bears are deep, deep in the red.

Which Pac-12 men’s hoops coaches are on the hot seat? — @MarcSheehan006

Cal’s Mark Fox, Stanford’s Jerod Haase, and Washington’s Mike Hopkins are atop our list. There’s a better chance of all three getting cut loose than none of them.

Given ASU’s resurgence, we’ll assume Bobby Hurley is safe. And although Wayne Tinkle’s situation at Oregon State seems tenuous, he has a relatively new contract.

That said, we could see a retirement, or someone could leave the Pac-12 for a better job — in some form or fashion, it will be a busy spring.

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The Hotline asked Brandon Huffman, the Washington-based national recruiting editor for 247 Sports, to offer a few projections for the Pac-12 with the high school juniors who will sign letters of intent in the winter of 2023-24.

Will the intra-conference dynamics change with USC and UCLA bound for the Big Ten?

Will resurgent Washington challenge Oregon for Pac-12 supremacy?

How will the Deion Sanders era at Colorado change the balance of power?

Huffman provided the following predictions …

1. Oregon reigns supreme

“Oregon will once again have the top recruiting class in the Pac-12.

“The Ducks are finishing with a top-10 class this year, in the first full cycle under coach Dan Lanning. And he’s going to secure another stellar group in 2023-24 given their ability to recruit nationally and, obviously, their ability to close with players on the West Coast and across the country. That will put them in a good position.

“They already have a top-10 class with the current high school juniors even though there are just four commitments. But  all of them are four-star prospects, including top players in Oregon, Washington and Pennsylvania.”

2. USC flourishes

“That said, I think USC’s class will be rated higher than Oregon’s. But because the Trojans will be headed to the Big Ten in the summer of ‘24, they won’t have the highest-ranked class in the Pac-12. Instead, it will be absorbed by the Big Ten.

“The second full recruiting cycle for coach Lincoln Riley is expected to be strong. Why do I say that considering the Trojans just lost one of their top prospects? (Four-star athlete Aaron Butler, who’s from Southern California, has de-committed.)

“Well, they went into Oregon and landed the No. 1 player in the state in four-star tight end Joey Olsen, and they have a four-star receiver from Long Beach in Jason Robinson. That’s only two commitments, but there will be less reliance on the transfer portal.

“The big portal push from Riley might have scared off some recruits in the ’23 class. But the Trojans will revert to the mean with the number of high school recruits and end up with the highest-rated class on the West Coast, just as a member of the Big Ten.”

3. Utah’s rise continues

“Utah will sign an even better recruiting class in 2024 than it has in the current recruiting cycle with the 22nd-ranked class nationally.

“Obviously, the Utes do a great job recruiting within the state. But what helps them is with the consecutive Pac-12 championships and the consecutive Rose Bowl berths, they are going to become a bigger national brand than they have been in recent years.

“They have recruited Florida well, and they have been able to recruit Texas and, of course, the West Coast. Now, I think they have a better chance.

“An example is CJ Blocker, the four-star defensive back from Texas who committed to them, then de-committed and eventually circled back and stuck with them. You’ll see more recruiting wins like that, where they go into Power Five states outside the western footprint and get elite guys. The upward trajectory will continue.”

4. Here comes Colorado

“I anticipate that Colorado will have a top-five class in the Pac-12 in the 2023-24 cycle.

“The Buffaloes are already off to a strong start with three commitments — all of them since the hiring of Deion Sanders. Their class ranks No. 17 nationally right now.

Two of the three highly-rated guys are from Georgia, so it’s a matter of holding onto them. (Omar White is a four-star defensive lineman.) And let’s not forget that Sanders has ties to Georgia from his time with the Falcons and Braves.

“I anticipate the Buffaloes finishing with a top-five class whether you count USC as being in the Pac-12 or not.”

5. Status quo at UCLA

“In contrast to Colorado, UCLA won’t have a top-five recruiting class in the conference even though the Bruins have one ranked that high in the 2022-23 recruiting cycle.

“Why? They have offered the fewest number of scholarships in the Pac-12 to prospects in the class of ’24. And of the teams in the Big Ten, the only school that has offered nearly as few scholarships is Northwestern.

“UCLA will continue to rely on the transfer portal. In the 2023 class, the Bruins have nine transfers and 13 high school signees. They’ll go with something close to a 50-50 balance during their years in the Big Ten.”

6. Stanford will struggle

“Stanford has been one of the recruiting stalwarts in the Pac-12, even amid some bad years on the field. But I think there will be a rude awakening for coach Troy Taylor in Year One.

“It’s not that I don’t think Taylor can recruit, or don’t think his staff can recruit. It’s that there’s a new face of the program. There isn’t a David Shaw, who produced a No. 1 overall draft pick and Rose Bowl wins. Taylor is still a relatively unknown quantity among recruits.

“Stanford got a number of ’23 commitments even when it didn’t have a coach — in the days after Shaw announced his resignation. And the program has one commitment in the class of 2024 right now in three-star cornerback Jamir Benjamin.

“But the Cardinal has to find its footing, because the NIL (name, image and likeness) landscape has changed things.

“It may take a year or two for Taylor to prove it on the field. Even though Stanford recruits itself, the program still might need a little bit of a recalibration.”

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*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

ESPN’s latest Bracketology predictions show just seven NCAA Tournament bids (combined) for the Mountain West, Pac-12 and WCC.

Bracket Matrix, which aggregates projections from various websites, shows the same.

The CBS Sports is slightly more optimistic, with eight bids spread across the three leagues.

The Athletic’s version shows the same.

Slice and dice the data however you’d like. The premier basketball conferences in the Pacific and Mountain Time Zones need strong finishes from teams on the bubble — that’s Arizona State and New Mexico, Utah and UNLV, Colorado and Boise State — to avoid doom on March 12.

(NET rankings through Wednesday’s games)

1. UCLA (14-2/5-0 Pac-12)

Last week: 2Results: beat USC 60-58Next up: vs. Utah (Thursday)NET ranking: 7Comment: The case for UCLA as a No. 1 seed remains flimsy given the Bruins’ lack of Quadrant I victories (two) compared to other teams in the mix. That could change. Or not.

2. Arizona (14-2/3-2 (Pac-12)

Last week: 1Results: beat Washington 70-67, lost to WSU 74-61Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)NET ranking: 9Comment: Of the Wildcats’ 14 wins, five are of the Quadrant IV nature (36 percent). That will change during conference play, but perhaps not to the degree Arizona needs.

3. Gonzaga (14-3/3-0 WCC)

Last week: 3Results: won at USF 77-75 and Santa Clara 81-76Next up: at Brigham Young (Thursday)NET ranking: 12Comment: It doesn’t appear the Zags have enough schedule juice remaining to claim a No. 1 seed. That work needed to be completed in non-conference play, and they didn’t quite clear the bar.

4. San Diego State (13-3/4-0 MW)

Last week: 4Results: won at Wyoming 80-75, beat Nevada 74-65Next up: vs. New Mexico (Saturday)NET ranking: 21Comment: The sizzling Aztecs have one loss since November (to Saint Mary’s) and a defense that has held nine of the past 10 opponents under 70 points.

5. Saint Mary’s (14-4/3-0 WCC)

Last week: 5Results: beat Portland 85-43Next up: vs. LMU (Thursday)NET ranking: 11Comment: We aren’t prepared to call the Gaels a lock for the NCAAs, but that day is fast approaching.

6. Arizona State (13-3/4-1 Pac-12)

Last week: 9Results: beat WSU 77-71 and Washington 73-65Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)NET ranking: 56Comment: Every loss by San Francisco in West Coast Conference play — so far, there have been three — makes ASU’s 37-point whiff look that much worse.

7. Utah (12-5/5-1 Pac-12)

Last week: 6Results: beat OSU 79-60, lost to Oregon 70-60Next up: at UCLA (Thursday)NET ranking: 43Comment: The Utes don’t have many chances remaining for Quad I wins, but two come this weekend in L.A. They need a split, at minimum.

8. New Mexico (15-2/2-2 MW)

Last week: 7Results: lost to UNLV 84-77, beat Oral Roberts 82-75Next up: at San Diego State (Saturday)NET ranking: 49Comment: Huge game for the Mountain West on Saturday at Viejas Arena. For several reasons, the collective needs the Lobos to prevail.

9. Nevada (14-4/4-1 MW)

Last week: NRResults: won at San Jose State 67-40, lost at SDSU 74-65Next up: vs. Utah State (Friday)NET ranking: 34Comment: Who figured an 18-point home win over Sam Houston in late November would become a resume-enhancing victory.

10. Colorado (11-6/3-3)

Last week: NRResults: beat Oregon 68-41 and OSU 62-42Next up: at USC (Thursday)NET ranking: 60Comment: The selection committee might need to carve out an hour to debate CU’s resume if the Buffaloes remain relevant down the stretch.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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The 63 ballots are kept private each week through the regular season — what stellar transparency! — so we are forced to wait until the very end to see the favoritism and hypocrisy in all their glory.

For example, Alabama coach Nick Saban voted his very own Crimson Tide second on the final ballot, behind Georgia — a full three spots above Alabama’s position in the poll.

Air Force coach Troy Calhoun followed Saban’s approach with his own team. The Falcons, who failed to crack the top-25, were No. 19 on Calhoun’s ballot.

In contrast, Penn State coach James Franklin voted his Nittany Lions seventh, mirroring PSU’s placement in the poll.

We were curious about the four Pac-12 coaches who voted in USA Today’s poll this season: Arizona’s Jedd Fisch, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Washington’s Kalen DeBoer and Washington State’s Jake Dickert.

Where did they slot Utah, the conference champion that was steamrollered in the Rose Bowl?

How did they handle Washington, the hottest team in the league at the end of the season?

Did any of them slot Oregon State ahead of Oregon?

Did all four include UCLA?

All in all, there were no egregious decisions, but their ballots were interesting nonetheless.

For example, DeBoer was one of the two coaches who voted UW sixth, above Tennessee and Penn State and two spots higher than the Huskies’ overall placement. (The other was Nevada’s Ken Wilson.)

Noteworthy? Yes.

Unjustified? Nope.

Three of the four coaches ranked Washington above Utah. The exception: Whittingham slotted his Utes No. 10 and the Huskies No. 11.

Only Dickert ranked USC above Utah, even though the Utes beat the Trojans twice.

Fisch’s ballot most closely mirrored the overall poll, while Dickert’s had the greatest deviation.

All four coaches had the teams closely bunched (aside from UCLA), with Whittingham using five consecutive slots (10-14) for Pac-12 teams.

Here are the positions of Pac-12 teams on each coach’s ballot and how they compare to placement in the top-25 poll.

DeBoerNo. 6: Washington (+2)No. 12 Utah (-1)No. 15: USC (-2)No. 16: Oregon State (+1)No. 17 Oregon (-1)No. 25: UCLA (-4)Total differential: -5

DickertNo. 7: Washington (+1)No. 10: USC (+3)No. 11: Utah (–)No. 12: Oregon State (+5)No. 13: Oregon (+3)No. 22: UCLA (-1)Total differential: +11

FischNo. 8: Washington (–)No. 12 Utah (-1)No. 13: USC (–)No. 16: Oregon (–)No. 18: Oregon State (-1)No. 22: UCLA (-1)Total differential: -3

WhittinghamNo. 10: Utah (+1)No. 11: Washington (-3)No. 12: USC (+1)No. 13: Oregon State (+4)No. 14: Oregon (+2)No. 23: UCLA (-2)Total differential: +3

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

Two possible outcomes exist for March Madness: Kicking the expansion can far down the road, or stomping on it.

There is zero chance of the Division I Board of Directors emerging from its meeting and pronouncing the imminent creation of an 80- or 90-team NCAA Tournament field.

For starters, the NCAA doesn’t work like that. Any decision to expand March Madness ultimately would be made by the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee (i.e., the selection committee).

Also, expansion is immensely complicated and would take years to formulate and model.

It’s far more intricate, for example, than expanding the College Football Playoff, which took three-and-a-half years.

The CFP isn’t beholden to NCAA bureaucracy; the 10 major conferences (and Notre Dame) control the football postseason. March Madness is run by the NCAA, with its sprawling, diverse and deeply conflicted membership.

“The expansion issue isn’t as hot as people are saying right now,” a source told the Hotline.

The reason for the heat? Last week, the NCAA’s transformation committee, charged with crafting a new blueprint for college sports, recommended the expansion of championship events for sports with at least 200 participating teams. Specifically, championships should accommodate up to 25 percent of the total.

With approximately 360 schools currently playing major college basketball — and more in the queue for membership — the March Madness field would need 90 spots to meet the 25 percent recommendation.

That makes sense in one regard: When the tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985, there were 282 schools in Division I — a participation rate of 22.7 percent.

Because so many universities have joined Division I over the past four decades, the current 68-team field accounts for just 18.7 percent of total D-I membership.

Access to the Madness is more restrictive than it used to be.

“Division I is a different world,” a source said.

And if structured properly, a massive NCAA field could serve the one-bid conferences at the bottom of the D-I revenue scale.

Instead of a straightforward adjustment of the bracket, by which the No. 1 seeds would face the No. 20 or No. 22 seeds in the first round, the opening weekend could become a mini-tournament unto itself featuring the bottom 30 or 40 seeds.

That would give teams in the smaller conferences (the Big South, the MEAC, the Ohio Valley, etc.) a fighting chance to play more than once and extend the NCAA experience that is so valuable for the schools and meaningful for the athletes.

It’s the concept behind the First Four writ large, with the survivors advancing to face the top 40 or 50 seeds in the main event.

But there are issues with expansion … so many issues.

That list of issues, of course, starts with the money. The NCAA’s broadcast contract with CBS and Turner runs into the early 2030s. Would the networks agree to open the deal and pump money into the event for additional games that wouldn’t generate meaningful ratings and could dilute the brand?

How would the extra rounds work logistically? Would the Final Four get pushed into the second weekend of April, when CBS broadcasts the Master’s? Or would the tournament start earlier, thus squeezing the regular season?

What’s more, any expansion of the men’s tournament would require similar growth for the women’s event, thereby adding massive operating costs to the NCAA’s budget.

Also, a larger field wouldn’t guarantee a better event. If anything, it could kneecap March Madness magic by weeding out the Cinderellas before they face the blue bloods.

And how does expanding the field serve the conferences atop the Division I food chain that are responsible for the ratings that generate the dollars?

Revenue from the tournament’s TV contract (about $900 million annually) funds athletic departments throughout the NCAA, all the way down to Division III.

Duke is subsidizing sports at Baldwin Wallace University.

UCLA is helping support Albertus Magnus College.

Unless expansion substantially increases revenue for the power leagues specifically, and isn’t distributed across all NCAA divisions, why should they agree?

They won’t, but that doesn’t mean the tournament field will remain fixed at 68 forever.

Ultimately, March Madness expansion is intertwined with the future of major college football, and both are at the mercy of external forces: The reality of name, image and likeness; and the potential for athletes to be declared employees by the National Labor Relations Board, the court system or some entity lurking in Mark Emmert’s closet.

Economic pressure will require systemic change, with the power conferences taking their ball, their money and their audience — as they have with football.

In that scenario, sketched by multiple Hotline sources, the top leagues would create their own basketball tournament, with a size and structure of their liking, and refuse to share the revenue with Division II and III and possibly even with the lower end of Division I.

After all, Kansas is currently subsidizing Tennessee Tech.

That day, if it comes, remains years away, but it’s no longer a fanciful notion.

What happens in court could very well dictate what happens on the court.

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It’s the last year of the Pac-12 as we have known it — the last year with USC and UCLA, the last year with the four-team playoff and the last year with the conference’s current media rights agreement.

The Hotline cannot let the opportunity to look foolish (or smart) pass without offering our predictions for the Pac-12 on the field/court and off.

Because what happens off the field in 2023 will determine what we see on it in 2024.

Here goes …

Men’s basketball: UCLA reaches the Final Four

The Bruins possess the best combination of experience and athleticism of coach Mick Cronin’s tenure. Comfortable in half-court grinders but plenty capable in transition, they’re built perfectly for March Madness.

As a No. 2 seed, their trek to Houston will include a narrow escape in the second round and convincing victories in the regionals but not the school’s 12th national championship.

The Pac-12’s other powerhouse, Arizona, won’t escape the Sweet 16. The Wildcats aren’t quite good enough on the perimeter to win four games in the NCAAs.

Women’s basketball: NCAA success

Another first-rate season for the conference results in seven March Madness bids and a breakthrough run for Utah, which will reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006.

We envision Stanford earning a No. 1 seed and reaching the Final Four again (but no title).

And led by freshman guard Kiki Rice, UCLA will join the Cardinal in Dallas to give the school national semifinalists in both tournaments for the first time.

Men’s basketball: Massive coaching turnover

At least four coaches have fallen into, or are rapidly approaching, perilous situations: Cal’s Mark Fox, Stanford’s Jerod Haase, Oregon State’s Wayne Tinkle and Washington’s Mike Hopkins.

Our current forecast calls for changes in the Bay Area — both programs — and in Seattle, as well. With football on the ascent, Washington’s administration has budget clarity and can concentrate on fixing basketball.

What’s more, at least one coach will leave the conference for a better opportunity. (WSU’s Kyle Smith is atop that list at the present time.)

The terminations are desperately needed. The overall quality of coaching, like the quality of play, is subpar.

Football: Preseason hype

The stellar lineup of quarterbacks and hiring of Deion Sanders (by Colorado) will lead to unprecedented hype and six teams in the AP preseason poll — the highest total since the summer of 2015.

Washington and USC will crack the top 10, with Utah, Oregon and Oregon State in the No. 11-20 range and UCLA among the final five.

No other conference will have more than five teams in the poll.

Football: Rookie coach results

Because of difficult schedules and roster deficiencies, none of the three newcomers will lead his team into the postseason.

Colorado will be vastly more competitive under Sanders but finish a game short of bowl eligibility.

Arizona State will get walloped by NCAA sanctions, thus delaying Kenny Dillingham’s rebuilding project.

And Stanford will continue to flounder under coach Troy Taylor, whose task is the most daunting because of institutional challenges that don’t exist in Boulder and Tempe.

Football: The 2023 champion

With so much focus on the departing L.A. schools, Washington will be the last team standing after repelling challenges from the Oregon schools, Utah and USC. (The Bruins will experience a notable regression.)

However, the Pac-12 will (once again) fail to place a team in the College Football Playoff.

With a schedule that includes Michigan State (road), plus USC, Utah and the Oregon schools, the Huskies won’t reach the 13-0/12-1 threshold required for a playoff berth.

Football: The Heisman Trophy finalist

For the second consecutive year, a Pac-12 quarterback will reach New York City for the trophy ceremony, but it won’t be the 2022 winner, USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

Instead, we expect Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. to represent the conference. Despite a stellar season, Penix won’t give the Pac-12 back-to-back winners.

Football: The 2024 schedule

The conference has yet to release the 2023 schedule, but the Hotline is deeply curious about the lineup for 2024 — the first season without USC and UCLA and the first without divisional alignment as the basis for the schedule.

Our guesses: The conference maintains the nine-game league rotation but implements a pod system that protects not only in-state but also regional rivalries.

For instance: Washington and Oregon will play each other every season.

Survival: Media rights revenue

The Hotline’s view hasn’t changed since those roiling summer weeks when the Pac-12 seemed on the brink of fracturing: The most likely outcome to the existential crisis is unity, with the 10 remaining schools signing a media deal.

We expect either a five-year agreement that expires in the summer of 2029 or an eight-year deal that terminates in the summer of 2032, following the Big Ten (expiration: 2030) and the Big 12 (2031).

The agreement will average between $33 million and $37 million per school, depending on the duration. The longer the contract, the greater the reward.

That said, nothing is guaranteed until the schools sign on the bottom line. The pressure is on commissioner George Kliavkoff to present the university presidents with an acceptable media rights offer.

Survival: The media rights partners

A dozen years ago, Pac-12 presidents directed then-commissioner Larry Scott to chase the media cash at the expense of exposure. The conference learned its lesson and is now seeking a balance between revenue and visibility.

The Hotline foresees partnerships (to varying degrees) with Amazon, ESPN and either Fox or CBS.

In addition, the Pac-12 Networks will continue to function — but only as a streaming platform for Olympic sports. It will not broadcast football or men’s basketball.

Business affairs: Big bet on gambling

As part of a sweeping media rights deal, the Pac-12 will agree to sell its statistical data to a sports gambling company.

Legalized wagering is a massive untapped revenue stream for college conferences, but not immediately. The jackpot is years away, when technology allows mass distributors of live sports to provide real-time wagering options on the big screen in your living room. (Every type of proposition bet will be a mere click away between plays.)

The Pac-12’s deal will be the first of its kind for a major conference and hint at the riches to come for everyone. But the short-term revenue will be in the low seven figures for each school.

Expansion: The newcomers

The Pac-12 passed on expanding its membership in the summer of 2021, and the decision proved costly. (Houston looks pretty good right now.) It won’t make the same mistake twice.

Will the conference add two teams, four teams or more? Will it add schools that don’t play football? Will it grow the footprint or focus on schools in the Pacific Time Zone?

Our best guess: San Diego State and SMU make 12.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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