I expect the Philadelphia Eagles to win their Week 18 game over the Giants.
I expect the Minnesota Vikings to win their Week 18 game, too.
And if those two things happen, I think the Niners would be best served to lose Sunday’s season finale to the Cardinals.
Now, the Niners will never think like this — as Herm Edwards once famously said, “you play to win the game.” With the possibility of gaining the No. 1 seed — an Eagles loss and Niners win Sunday would give San Francisco a first-round playoff bye — you’d expect the Niners to give it their all in Week 18.
But there could be a moment on Sunday where the Niners have the ability to decide between winning and losing; between the No. 2 or the No. 3 seed.
And the right answer is the No. 3 seed.
Now, I think every playoff should start with a draft and the top seeds picking their opponents in the first round.
Alas, this perfect model doesn’t yet exist in North American professional sports.
But pretend it did for this season.
Do you think the team with the No. 2 seed — the first pick in the draft, as the No. 1 seed has a bye — would pick the Green Bay Packers as their first-round opponent?
The Packers are on a roll. They’ve won four straight games and, if they win Sunday against the Lions, they’ll be the NFC’s No. 7 seed.
Yes, the 49ers have edged the Packers in the 2019 and 2021 playoffs. And yes, they’re the better team this year, too.
But the paradigm has changed for Green Bay since those previous playoff games. Instead of being a Super Bowl contender — or the favorites — like in years past, this season, the Packers would enter the tournament without any expectations. They just barely made the playoffs, after all.
A big part of the Packers’ late-season success is that they were dead. At 4-8, their season was over. Then Aaron Rodgers started ripping the ball all over the field.
Rodgers is still perhaps the most talented thrower of the football in NFL history. He finally has some receivers that are worth a damn (the emergence of rookie Christian Watson has been massive) to pair with a solid defense.
Rodgers has nothing to lose and can still do anything he wants with the ball in his hand.
In past playoff matchups, Rodgers played tight, aiming for perfection. It made him a sitting duck for the Niners’ pass rush.
This postseason, he’d be unburdened by expectation and bolstered by experience.
Forgive me, but that sounds way scarier than Daniel Jones throwing screen after screen to Saquon Barkley or trying to hook up with top receiver Richie James.
The Eagles will win on Sunday, meaning the No. 1 seed is off the table. Not only is Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts set to return, but the Giants can’t change their No. 6 seed, so I doubt they even play Barkley. Jones might be short-lived for the contest, too.
The Vikings should beat the Bears, too, because the Bears stink and they could land the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft with a loss.
The Vikings game will be decided before the Niners game starts Sunday. Eagles-Giants will be concurrently played.
No matter what time the games are, the Niners would be wise to pack it in to avoid the Pack.
Of course, there’s the chance that the Packers lose Sunday — they’ll play the night game. That would mean the Seahawks or Lions sneak into the No. 7 seed.
Cool.
I still think the Niners should lose Sunday to give them a shot at playing the Giants.
The Giants, Seattle, Detroit — they’re all the same: non-threats to the Niners.
So this is a perfect example of one in hand being better than two in the bush.
Also, there’s a highly dangerous man with impressive teammates in that bush. Avoid the bush.
Why should the Vikings get to play the easier team? The Niners should lose, hope the Vikings win, and be better off in the No. 3 seed.
Worst-case scenario, the Niners hold their current No. 2 seed, but are rested and healthy for the first round of the playoffs.
Yes, falling to No. 3 would mean San Francisco could lose a home game in the playoffs, but the only way that would come to pass in the Divisional Round is if the Vikings advance over that No. 7 seed.
The Vikings are paper tigers. The Packers trounced them in Week 17. The Niners are a roundly better team than Minnesota.
There wouldn’t even be elements in a Vikings-Niners game in Minneapolis. Crowd noise, sure, but the Vikings play in a dome. The conditions would be nicer than in Santa Clara. What’s so scary about that?
I’d be way more afraid of taking on a devil-may-care Rodgers and the Packers in the first round.
You might call it running scared, I call it pragmatism.
And if you want to win a Super Bowl, you have to show a bit of pragmatism along the way.
For the 49ers, life would be easier as the No. 3 seed.
Plus, if the playoffs play out the way I think they will, the Niners will get two old NFC playoff rivals in the first two rounds: the Giants and the Cowboys.
Not only are those teams beatable, they’re also historic.
Yes, it’s great that the Niners have a chance to play for the No. 1 seed on Sunday. It’s an incredible accomplishment given the fact that they’re on their third quarterback this season.
But for me, the Niners should be playing for a different No. 3.
It will give them a better chance of accomplishing more this postseason.
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