Welcome to the Bay Area News Group (Mercury News & East Bay Times) boys Athlete of the Week poll.

For the entire academic year, we will provide a list of candidates who stood out over the previous week and allow you, the reader, to vote for the winner.

This week, we consider performances from Jan. 9-14.

This week, polls close at 5 p.m. Thursday.

Vote as many times as you’d like until then without using bots or any other artificial methods of voting.

Votes by email are not counted.

Scroll to the bottom for the poll.

Winners are announced each Friday online and, starting Sept. 30, in the print edition of the Mercury News and East Bay Times sports sections.

Candidates for future Athlete of the Week polls can be nominated at highschools@bayareanewsgroup.com.

We accept nominations until 11 a.m. each Monday.

We also review stats submitted to MaxPreps by coaches/team statisticians.

On to the nominees:

Alec Balica, Castro Valley soccer: The junior had himself a game against Encinal, scoring four goals to lead the Trojans to a 7-1 victory in West Alameda County Conference Foothill Division play. Balica continued his torrid play to open this week, scoring two goals Monday in a 4-0 win over San Leandro, which improved Castro Valley’s record to 6-2-3 overall and 4-1-1 in the league.

Josh Clark, Oakland basketball: The senior scored in double figures in both of the Wildcats’ victories in Oakland Athletic League play last week. He had 11 points in a 56-48 victory over Fremont-Oakland and 12 in an 81-43 rout of Skyline. Clark shot a combined 50% (8 of 16) from the field.

Andre Gonzalez Lombera, Menlo School soccer: The junior scored in the 75th minute as Menlo defeated The King’s Academy 3-2. He also scored twice in a 3-2 win over Crystal Springs and had a goal in a 3-0 win over Harker as the Knights improved to 3-0 in West Bay Athletic League play.

Max Houghton, Los Gatos basketball: Led the way with 17 points, six rebounds and six assists as the Wildcats defeated Los Altos 52-33 on Friday. Two days earlier, he had 18 points on 5-of-7 shooting — and 6 for 6 free-throw shooting — in a 60-41 victory over Palo Alto. Los Gatos ended the week 11-4 overall and 3-0 in its league.

Braddock Kjellesvig, Christopher basketball: The 6-foot-6 sophomore finished with 28 points on 10-of-11 shooting and 10 rebounds as Christopher defeated Oak Grove 59-50 in a BVAL Mt. Hamilton East Division opener. The forward/center followed that game with 26 points and 15 rebounds on 13-of-15 shooting in a 67-42 rout of Santa Teresa on Friday as Christopher improved to 11-3, 2-0.

Samir O’Brien, Berkeley basketball: Coming off a tough loss to Alameda in league play on Friday, Berkeley bounced back on Saturday at its MLK Classic with a stunning 52-34 victory over seventh-ranked California as O’Brien led the Yellowjackets in scoring with 14 points. The result improved Berkeley’s record to 12-5.

Kiratraj Sanghera, American basketball: In a 55-52 victory over Mission San Jose, the 6-foot-5 junior had 24 points, eight rebounds and five blocks. Earlier in the week, he filled the stat sheet with 31 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks in a 60-59 loss to James Logan. In the two games, he was 25 for 42 shooting (60%).

Gael Segura, Half Moon Bay soccer: The senior scored a goal and assisted on another as Half Moon Bay stayed red hot with a 3-1 victory over South San Francisco in Peninsula Athletic League Ocean Division play. The Cougars began this week with a record of 10-0-2 overall and 2-0 in their league.

Tyler Suzuki, Leigh basketball: The junior shooting guard helped the Longhorns open BVAL Mt. Hamilton West Division play with two victories on the road. He scored 19 points in a 64-50 win over Independence and 14 in a 65-51 win over Piedmont Hills.

Angel Vasquez, James Logan soccer: The sophomore scored both of his team’s goals as James Logan beat Kennedy-Fremont 2-0 in a Mission Valley Athletic League match. The victory improved the Colts’ record to 9-5-1, 5-1.

Welcome to the Bay Area News Group (Mercury News & East Bay Times) boys Athlete of the Week poll.

For the entire academic year, we will provide a list of candidates who stood out over the previous week and allow you, the reader, to vote for the winner.

This week, we consider performances from Jan. 9-14. Polls close at 5 p.m. Thursday.

Vote as many times as you’d like until then without using bots or any other artificial methods of voting.

Votes by email are not counted.

Scroll to the bottom for the poll.

Winners are announced each Friday online and, starting Sept. 30, in the print edition of the Mercury News and East Bay Times sports sections.

Candidates for future Athlete of the Week polls can be nominated at highschools@bayareanewsgroup.com.

We accept nominations until 11 a.m. each Monday.

We also review stats submitted to MaxPreps by coaches/team statisticians.

On to the nominees:

Makiah Asidanya, Salesian basketball: Asidanya scored 14 points, had seven steals and handed out five assists in a league matchup against St. Mary’s Berkeley. Asidanya is committed to the University of North Carolina-Greensboro. 

Trinity Chu, California basketball: The sophomore guard scored an efficient 22 points in the Grizzlies’ 60-32 league win over Amador Valley. Chu made 8 of 11 shots and contributed four steals on the defensive side too. 

Kiarra D’Arcangelo, Westmont soccer: D’Arcangelo scored a goal and had an assist in Westmont’s 4-1 win over James Lick. It marked the first time the junior had not scored twice in a game in which she found the back of the net. 

Madelyn Funk, Livermore soccer: Livermore’s junior goalkeeper helped keep another clean sheet during Livermore’s scoreless draw with Granada. According to stats inputted into MaxPreps, she has allowed only three goals in 495 minutes of play and has 31 saves. 

Audrey Le-Nguyen, Campolindo soccer: The senior was arguably Campolindo’s best player in last week’s thrilling 4-3 victory over College Park. She scored one goal and found her teammates for two additional assists. 

Amanda Muse, Heritage basketball: The Patriots’ senior center scored her 1,000th career point in a blowout win over Antioch last Friday. The UCLA commit became only the fourth player in the program’s history to reach that mark. Muse scored 17 in the game. 

Kori Pickelle, Santa Teresa soccer: The senior scored a hat trick (three goals) in Santa Teresa’s 4-1 win over Prospect last week. Earlier in the season, PIckelle had two goals and two assists in a win over Independence. 

Kennedy Schoennauer, Lincoln-San Jose soccer: The Utah commit has continued to have a banner senior season for the Lions. Schoennauer scored five goals in a win over Christopher, the third time she has reached that mark in a match this season. 

Quinn Shirley, Aragon soccer: The sophomore midfielder scored two goals in a 3-0 win over Capuchino. Shirley has three goals and four assists this season for a 6-1 Aragon team. 

Either way, if you weren’t a dessert person before this, you will be after reading this take on the region’s hottest new bakeries — from a Walnut Creek shop crafting Romanian specialties to an Oakland cheesecake house and a Santa Clara bakery where a couple has found their encore career in Portuguese recipes.

East Bay Bakery, Danville

Across the street from Blackhawk Plaza, this stand-out bakery with the simple name has been wowing locals with its sweet and savory offerings since it opened in July. Glass cases display in jewel-like fashion the laminated croffles, curry puffs and pretzels that have become proprietor-baker Gaby Lubaba’s signatures. East Bay Bakery has no seating but the counter offers views of the open kitchen, where the bakery crew prepares Lubaba’s unique spins on danishes, cookies and croissants. (We recently spied both a baklava croissant and a pastrami-cheese version.)

Lubaba, who made our 2022 list of Rising Stars, offers a wide selection of classic treats and fresh baked breads, too, including rye brownies and a craveable olive fougasse. But there is a certain magic in the seasonal items — hello, pistachio chocolate escargot — and treats inspired by her native Indonesia. Be sure to get your hands on the crispy beef curry puffs filled with real curry leaves. They go fast.

The treat: Made from buttery croissant dough, the croffle ($5) is a crowd-favorite that taps into something deeply nostalgic. The crispy, almost caramelized outside leads to a chewy, satisfying interior that’s buttery and not too sweet. Perfection.

Details: Open 8 a.m.-2 p.m. weekdays and 9 a.m.-2 p.m. weekends at 6000C Crow Canyon Road in  Danville. Also Saturdays at the Orinda Farmers Market and Sundays at the Walnut Creek Farmers Market; https://theeastbaybakery.com

LeLe Cake, Los Gatos

Elena Leskina says she’s pretty fearless when it comes to challenges — whether it’s “new business, new skills, new country.” An electrical engineer by trade, she taught herself how to bake intricate desserts by watching YouTube videos during her young daughter’s two-hour naps back in Moscow. When she and her family immigrated to the U.S. five years ago, she opened a commercial kitchen.

Last June, she launched LeLe Cake, a cute all-day cafe where brunch is as popular as the pastries and custom cakes. It’s worth waiting for a table to try one of the Euro-style dishes that customers rave about — the Syrniki (Russian cheese pancakes) with berries, perhaps, Homemade Salted Salmon Toast or the Gruyere Waffle with goat cheese and onion marmalade.

If you didn’t save room for dessert, stop at the bakery case for a takeout order of, say, Kartoshka (chocolate cake “truffles” topped with fruit), Pavlova or Trifle. The full-size cakes are multi-layer, highly decorated beauties with selections such as the Choco Girl, Poppyseed & Lemonade, flaky Napoleon cake or the Sever, a Norwegian national favorite topped with meringue.

The treat: The star is Leskina’s version of the Medovik, a Russian honey cake layered with fresh raspberries and a light white chocolate and sour cream frosting. It’s available by the slice (three layers) or as a full-size cake (five or six layers).

Details: Open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. daily at 14178 Blossom Hill Road, Los Gatos; https://lelecake.me/

Crumble & Whisk, Oakland

Charles Farrier’s somewhat random entry into the bakery world came when a coworker asked if he could contribute to a potluck dinner. “I was like, ‘Sure.’ I brought a cheesecake. Everyone loved it,” he recalls.

That revelation triggered a slow and deep dive into the art of baking, with Farrier studying cookbooks, experimenting with different styles of cheesecakes, and then distributing them at barbershops and businesses along Oakland’s MacArthur Boulevard and later at farmers markets. This December, he opened a brick-and-mortar location in the Laurel District, where he prepares not just the confection that put him on the map but scrumptious pastries, artfully decorated cookies and so much more.

“This is about building up community, so people can get to know me as a neighborhood staple,” Farrier says. For his breakfast peeps, he has coffee cake, overnight oats and huge cinnamon buns with a jiggly, custard-like frosting. (Try to get them hot.) Folks celebrating a special occasion – or who just want to treat themselves – can order his super-creamy cheesecakes in full and puck-sized versions, with vegan options to boot. And for dinner, you can pick up a flaky-crusted pot pie and a banana pudding that’d fool your Southern grandma, with vanilla wafers and the obligatory toupee of whipped topping.

The treat: The much-lauded cheesecakes are not dense but rather melting, creamy delights with seasonal surprises. Cold weather might see a maple-pecan crumble or apple-cider cake version with chunks of fruit. In the summer folks, rave about the blackberry and corn cheesecake, made with a puree of off-the-cob kernels, thyme and brown butter.

Details: Open 8 a.m.-4 p.m. Tuesday-Friday and 9 a.m.-2 p.m. Saturday at 4104 MacArthur Blvd., Oakland; www.crumbleandwhisk.com.

Little Sky Bakery, Menlo Park

For years, Tian Mayimin was focused on the law. Since 2017, it’s been all about leavening.

In the beginning, the self-taught baker delivered her naturally leavened breads, baked in her Menlo Park home kitchen, to neighbors. Then she became the darling of the Peninsula and South Bay farmers market circuit with her creative lineup of loaves. Next came pop-ups. And soon she set her sights on a dedicated brick-and-mortar.

Last March, she and her team opened a storefront location on Santa Cruz Avenue near the Caltrain station. Late in the year, she expanded the hours of their indoor pop-up at the State Street Market in Los Altos, all while maintaining a strong farmers market presence. They staff 16 markets every week, with four seasonal ones starting up again this spring.

With the expansions came more innovation. Pistachio Bundt Cakes and Caramel Nut Tarts for the holiday season. Roman-style flatbreads. Baozi, yeast-leavened, filled buns. Open-face lox sandwiches on European rye. Jalapeno Cheddar Rings. A signature Challah made with orange juice and honey and brushed with olive oil. And Volkornbrot, the hefty German loaf nicknamed the king of seeded breads. Some creations are available weekly; some rotate into the lineup.

The treat: The popular Raisin-Walnut loaves go fast. And keep your eye out for batches of the Provencal herbal flatbread called fougasse.

Details: Open from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. daily at 506 Santa Cruz Ave. in Menlo Park, with a permanent indoor pop-up at State Street Market in Los Altos; https://littleskybakery.com/

European Delights, Walnut Creek

Since opening in July on Walnut Creek’s east side, this bakery has become a haven for European expats and others craving Italian coffee and classic pastries without gobs of frosting or other sugar bombs. From the open kitchen, Romanian co-owner and head baker Rica Zaharia, a native of Transylvania, greets customers with a smile and talks them through the day’s fresh bakes while the Lavazza brews on the counter.

The glass case holds a medley of goodies, like almond and honey shortbread, apple morning buns and giant, 7-inch cookies packed with caramel and chocolate chips. Some items, like the covri dog, a frankfurter wrapped in golden pastry dough, are a nod to Zaharia’s Romanian roots. Others are collaborations between Zaharia and staff baker, Vida. One such creation, the tiramisu cookie, features pastry cream sandwiched between soft, round ladyfinger-like cookies.

The treat: We’re big fans of the börek. Thin, flaky, phyllo-like pastry dough is filled with ham, vegetables, cheeses and other savory ingredients. Our favorite is the mushroom ($5), which has flecks of herbs and a distinct truffle flavor. Keep an eye out for heart-shaped treats in February.

Details: Open 8 a.m.-4 p.m. Monday-Saturday and until 2 p.m. Sunday, at 2236A Oak Grove Road in Walnut Creek; https://european-delights.com.

Max’s Cakes, Hayward

This classic, family-owned bakery opened five weeks ago and has already added much-needed pizzazz to downtown Hayward. Horchata cheesecake and café de olla and buñelo cupcakes, nods to baker Max Soto‘s Mexican-American heritage, line the pastry case alongside cookies and brick-sized slices of his Instagram-famous layer cakes. Those cakes come in five flavors, including coconut cream, burnt almond and confetti, and are already proving to be top sellers.

After ordering your dessert, take a seat — or a selfie inside the giant picture frame against the white subway-tiled wall. Or spend some time admiring the historic black and white photos of downtown Hayward lining the walls. Soto appeared on Buddy Valastro’s “Big Time Bake” in 2020 and became the youngest contestant ever to win a “Food Network” competition. There are some pretty cute photos of him eating cake as a baby, too.

The treat: You have to get a slice of cake ($8). Two, actually. The 24-Karrot cake is super moist, topped with cream cheese frosting and brimming with shredded carrots and toasted walnuts. If you’re a lemon fiend, Lemon Supreme, a lemon cake layered with lemon curd and vanilla buttercream, is your jam.

Details: Opens at 11 a.m. Wednesday-Friday and 10 a.m. Saturday-Sunday at 1007 B St., Hayward; https://maxscakesofficial.wixsite.com

Portuguese Tasty Desserts, Santa Clara

What’s new in Santa Clara is delightfully old school: a bakery specializing in nostalgic Portuguese recipes that made their way from the Azores to the Bay Area many decades ago.

When Teresa and Nelio Defreitas retired from school district careers (she as a kitchen supervisor, he as a campus maintenance manager), they decided to resurrect her parents’ Portuguese Bakery, which had been in business locally for more than 40 years. They found a spot and opened a year ago.

“This is what we love to do, especially the interaction with the customers,” she said. “We have such an amazing mix in this community.”

Customers come from as far away as Sacramento for the pillowy Portuguese sweet bread, pastel de natas (custard tarts), rice pudding, a rich, smooth flan and other goodies. The malasadas — the Portuguese doughnuts so popular in Hawaii — are available in 12 flavors (including guava and custard) on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Know you won’t have time to cook for that upcoming potluck? They will bake to your specifications. “Bring me your Pyrex dish and I’ll fill it up with rice pudding,” Teresa said.

The old-school touches extend beyond the recipes. Walk in and you’ll be welcomed, as all customers are, with a complementary cup of coffee, sweet bread samples and conversation. You won’t walk out empty-handed.

The treat: Biscoitos, the not-too-sweet cookie rings, come in almond, lemon, cinnamon, anise, chocolate and other flavors and are perfect for dunking in coffee or snacking.

Details: Open from 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. Tuesday-Saturday at 1085 El Camino Real, Santa Clara; www.facebook.com/PortugueseTastyDesserts/.

Simurgh, Emeryville

If you took a bagel, crusted it in sesame seeds and stretched it out like one of those old-timey hoops kids pushed with a stick, you’d get simit. Every Turkish city has shops hawking simit – and around here, there’s no better place to try them than Hatice Yildiz’s cafe that opened on San Pablo Avenue in late 2022.

A daughter of Istanbul restaurateurs who took an interesting journey to baking – she got a PhD in religious studies in Berkeley – Yildiz makes simit that’s crackling outside, soft and stretchy inside and kissed with the smoke of the oven. Order it with lox and cream cheese or, more traditionally, with tahini and grape molasses. There’s charred-top rice pudding, too, and baklava with housemade phyllo and imported “emerald” pistachios, famous for their startling green hue and nutty-fresh taste. Try the chocolate version, whose honey and bitter cocoa notes somehow improves on the original.

A heartier bite can be found in boreks, quichelike pies with fillings of goat cheese, mushrooms and kale, and stuffed eggplants that were sun-dried in Turkey. Yildiz plans to diversify her savory side this year with lahmacun, as well, a thin flatbread topped with minced beef, peppers and herbs and baked to perfection. (Just don’t call it “Turkish pizza.”)

The treat: The Russian/Ukrainian honey cake is a masterfully constructed slab of housemade graham crackers, condensed milk and brown butter. The sweet-sensory overload is like sticking your head in a honeybee hive, without the bees.

Details: Open daily from 10 a.m.-6 p.m. at 4125 San Pablo Ave. in Emeryville; www.simurghbakery.com.

Forest & Flour, Fremont

Many Bay Area residents with dietary issues have found sweet salvation at Sway Soturi’s farmers market booths over the past few years. Now the San Jose wellness entrepreneur can offer a larger menu of organic and gluten-free, dairy-free, peanut-free, soy-free and corn-free savories and sweets to a broader audience at her new cafe in Fremont’s Mission San Jose district.

“We try to make things that people would miss,” said Soturi, who started baking allergen-friendly fare for herself. Take, for example, monkey bread and soup. Her Monkey Party muffins are as ooey-gooey as expected, thanks to a coconut-sugar caramel. The creamy, satisfying Clam Chowder is made with chicken broth, coconut milk and cashews, which naturally add an interesting nutty tone.

You’ll also find gluten-free muffins (carrot, matcha and seasonal), baguettes, brioche, chocolate chip cookies and more. For lunch, she and her team offer congee and French toast too.

By the way, this greenery-filled cafe is located near Mission Peak, which is good to keep in mind if you need fuel for a trip up or replenishment after coming down.

The treat: The big hit is the aromatic Lavender-Lemon Bread. It’s available by the loaf or as a small toast order, with a side of locally made Rose Petal Jam. Soturi also showcases other like-minded Bay Area purveyors.

Details: Open 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Thursday-Friday and 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. Saturday-Sunday at 43587 Mission Blvd., Fremont; https://forestandflour.com/.

Bake Sum, Oakland

As a kid, Joyce Tang loved to eat at bakeries in Oakland’s Chinatown. “When I got older, I didn’t really feel like I saw anyone iterating those types of flavors at the patisseries I’d visit around the Bay Area,” she says.

Her solution: Quit a Facebook job, land an internship at a three-star Michelin restaurant in Spain, then come back and start her own bakery specializing in memories from her childhood. The philosophy at Bake Sum is pastries should not just be beautiful (though they are, wonderfully so), but also meaningful to a staff of predominantly Asian and female bakers.

“We always try to find nostalgic flavors that speak to us and our upbringings,” Tang says.

Walk into the charmingly decorated shop in Grand Lake and you might see lilikoi “mochi bites” and loco-moco danish with a meat patty, gravy and runny egg. There’s a croissant and Spam musubi crossover called a “crusubi” and an okonomiyaki danish with garlic oil-roasted mushrooms, Kewpie mayo and furikake. It all sounds hearty, but with the skill of the bakers in making delicate, flaky doughs, you’ll be ready for seconds in no time.

The treat: The green-onion croissant is a popular offering that blends two styles of scallion pancakes from Northern and Southern China. It has a pleasantly bready, oily and crunchy exterior, with a soft interior of scallions, toasted sesame oil and sea salt.

Details: Open 8 a.m.-2 p.m. Friday-Sunday and 8 a.m.-1 p.m. Thursday and Monday at 3249 Grand Ave. in Oakland; www.bakesum.com.

Moves, expansions and other new-ish bakeries to check out:

Lolita Bakery Cafe: Silvia Leiva Browne has supplemented her Hillsdale Shopping Center location, which opened in 2018, with a larger retail shop where fans of Argentinean baked goods can find her alfajores, empanadas and more. 3790 S. El Camino Real, San Mateo; www.lolitaalfajores.com

Republic of Cake: This longtime Orinda bakery known for cupcakes moved to Danville in 2022, expanding its offerings to include more pastries, quiches, sandwiches and ice cream. 730 Camino Ramon, Suite 196, Danville; www.republicofcake.com

Wingen Bakery: Peek into a new bread room and enjoy extra seating with a bistro-style menu of breakfast and lunch items at this recently-expanded Livermore bakery known for bread and pastries. 50 S. Livermore Ave., Livermore; www.wingenbakery.com

Ono Bakehouse: The East Bay’s only dedicated Hawaiian bakery has been open since Dec. 2020 and continues to wow with malasadas, savory ham-and-pineapple buns and tropical Queen Emma cake. Best to pre-order. 1922 Martin Luther King Jr. Way, Berkeley; https://ono-bakehouse.square.site

Sunday Bakeshop: StarChefs 2022 Rising Star Award winner Elaine Lau marries classic French training with the Asian flavors of her childhood for magically nostalgic treats that have mass appeal: White Rabbit cookies, a char siu croissant, Thai tea milk buns and halo halo cake are all stunners. 5931 College Ave., Oakland; www.thesundaybakeshop.com

With dry weather forecast for most of the next week, here’s a tally of the storms’ stunning impact, so far, by the numbers:

9: Number of atmospheric river storms to hit California in the past three weeks.

20: Number of confirmed fatalities, as of Monday, from California storms since Christmas.12: Number of confirmed fatalities in California wildfires in 2021 and 2022.

41: Number of California’s 58 counties under federal emergency declaration.3: Number under major disaster declaration (Santa Cruz, Merced, Sacramento).

24.5 trillion: Estimated gallons of water that fell on California from Dec. 26 to Jan. 11.16: Number of times that amount of water could fill California’s largest reservoir, Shasta Lake.

17: Inches of rain measured in downtown San Francisco since Dec. 26.3: Historical average in inches of rain that falls in downtown San Francisco over same time.

3: Number of times the San Lorenzo River hit major flood stage since Dec. 27, prompting evacuations and flooding neighborhoods.

40: Size of the hole, in feet, torn in the historic Capitola Wharf during the storms.

62: Miles of Highway 1 in Big Sur that remained closed Monday due to landslides.

1.19 million: Gallons of water flowing every second through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta on Friday.1.12 million: Gallons flowing every second down the Columbia River, the largest river on the West Coast, on Friday.54,712: Gallons flowing every second through the Delta on Dec. 1.

27: Feet of snow that have fallen at the UC snow lab at Donner Summit since Nov. 1.12: Feet of snow that fell on average from 1991-2020 at the lab over the same time.

247: Percent of historic average for statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack, on Monday.106: Percent of historic average for statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack on Dec. 1.

1,046: Bay Area lightning strikes on Jan. 14-15, including one that hit the Golden Gate Bridge.

500+: Number of landslides statewide caused by storms, since New Year’s Eve, according to the California Geological Survey.

34 million: Number of Californians — 90% of state population — under flood watch Monday Jan. 9.

143: Percent of normal rainfall since Oct. 1 in San Jose through Monday afternoon.196: Percent in San Francisco.219: Percent in Los Angeles.229: Percent in Oakland.424: Percent in Bishop in the Eastern Sierra.

100: Percent full for all seven reservoirs operated by Marin Municipal Water District.86: Percent full for all seven reservoirs operated by East Bay MUD.56: Percent full for all 10 reservoirs operated by the Santa Clara Valley Water District (Anderson, the largest, had to be drained for earthquake repairs).

33: Percent full for Lexington Reservoir near Los Gatos on Dec. 1.100: Percent full for Lexington Reservoir on Monday.

46: Percent on Thursday of California in “severe drought,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.85: Percent on Dec. 1 of California in “severe drought.”

0: Number of major storms forecast for the next week.

“Survey says” looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.

Buzz: The Inland Empire is home to California’s wildest home-price swings.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet tallied annual changes in home values in seven big California markets, as calculated by Federal Housing Finance Agency indexes dating to 1978. Rankings tracked four factors: the gap between best and worst years; the share of down years; a geeky measure of price-swing variations called “standard deviation;” and the 44-year average price gain. The final grade was an average ranking of these four yardsticks.

Topline

As California housing seems headed toward a price correction in 2023, it’s time to see what history tells us where large gyrations in home values happen the most frequently in the state.

The housing market of Riverside and San Bernardino counties took the top spot because it was No. 1 in all four volatility yardsticks. The Inland Empire’s housing market has an up-and-down history due the region’s fast-growth and erratic economic history.

Next came the Sacramento metro area, followed by Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties, then the San Jose and San Francisco metro areas.

Details

Let’s look inside the rankings to see how values within these markets have varied since 1978.

No. 1 Inland Empire: There’s a 57 percentage-point gap between the biggest gain of 29% in 2004 and the largest loss of 28% in 2008. This market suffered down years 30% of the time, with a typical 10.6 percentage-point variation in year-to-year price swings. Local prices have gained an average 5.8% a year.

No. 2 Sacramento: The metro area’s 45-point gap between its biggest gain of 25% in 1978 and the largest loss of 20% in 2008. Down years 25% of the time. A 9.8-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6% a year.

No. 3 Los Angeles County: A 43-point gap between its biggest gain of 26% in 2005 and largest loss of 17% in 2008. Down years 30% of the time. A 9.5-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.3% a year.

No. 4 Orange County: A 44-point gap between biggest gain of 26% in 2004 and the largest loss of 18% in 2008. Down years 25% of the time. A 9.1-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.1% a year.

No. 5 San Diego County: A 42-point gap between biggest gain of 25% 2004) and the largest loss of 17% (2008). Down years 27% of the time. A 8.8-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.2% a year.

No. 6 San Jose: The metro area’s 43-point gap between biggest gain of 30% (1989) and largest loss of 12% (2009). Down years 25% of the time. A 9-point price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.9% a year.

No. 7 San Francisco: The metro area’s 32-point gap between biggest gain of 23% (2000) and largest loss of 9% (2008). Down years 27% of the time. A 8.8% price-swing variation. Average gain of 6.9% a year.

Caveat

Let’s remember, California’s overall housing market has historically gone through wilder peaks and valleys than the rest of the U.S. This means most national home-price forecasts have little value to a California property watcher.

Look at the differences in these volatility measures for the California and U.S. FHFA indexes – with a stock average (Wilshire 500 index) tossed in for comparative purposes.

Best year: Up 24% (2005) for California homes, up 14% (1978) for U.S. homes and up 37% (1983) for stocks.

Worst year: Off 20% (2008) for California homes, off 6% (2009). for U.S. homes and off 22% (2009) for stocks.

Extremes gap: 43 percentage points between best and worst years for California homes, 20 for U.S. homes, and 59 for stocks.

Down years since 1978: 27% for California homes, 11% for U.S. homes, and 18% for stocks.

Price-swing variance: 9.1 percentage points for California homes, 4.3 for U.S. homes, and 13 for stocks.

Average gain since 1978: 6.2% for California homes, 4.7% for U.S. homes, and 10.1% for stocks.

Bottom line

Falling home prices in California are not just the result of events surrounding the 2008 global financial meltdown and housing collapse.

In the decade of recovery from the mid-2000s housing bust, the seven markets have had a total of five down years. So, even before you ponder overvalued homes, high mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty, California housing seems overdue for a price correction.

And recent gains seem unsustainable, especially since mortgage rates soared in much of 2022.

Peek at the one-year home-price gains for the seven markets through September, the latest FHFA indexes available, and how that gain would rank among all other full-year results back to 1978.

Inland Empire’s 18% increase would be its seventh-best since 1978. Orange County’s 17% would be No. 5; San Diego 17% (No. 6); San Jose 15% (No. 8); Los Angeles County 15% (No. 9); San Francisco 12% (No. 17); Sacramento 10% (No. 16).

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

The headwinds are plenty: Higher interest rates for construction loans. Rising labor and material costs. Slowing demand from homebuyers squeezed by more expensive mortgages. And fears of a looming recession as cities continue to recover from the pandemic.

That’s all raising the specter of a widespread housing construction downturn.

“There already is a slowdown, but I think it will magnify itself in 2023,” said Ken Rosen, chair of UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics. “A lot of developers may put projects on hold until construction costs come down.”

The decline threatens to thwart the Bay Area’s effort to meet its state-mandated goal of approving more than 441,000 homes of all income levels over the next eight years, representing a roughly 15% increase in the region’s housing stock. Already, most cities and counties haven’t come close to meeting their individual targets in past decades. And housing experts and advocates contend that chronic underproduction — in part because many local officials have sought to limit growth — is at the root of the region’s astronomical rents and home prices.

Mathew Reed, policy director with Silicon Valley pro-housing group SV@Home, said the mounting economic uncertainty will require officials at all levels of government to remove barriers to development and unlock more money for desperately needed affordable homes.

“Because there are ongoing challenges, there’s a lot we can do that’s going to be critical in the longer term,” Reed said.

Signs of a homebuilding decline are already clear. From the start of last year through November, the San Francisco metro area — which includes the East Bay and Peninsula — permitted just over 10,000 homes, a 16% decline from the same period in 2021, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The San Jose metro area, which has seen a spate of new housing planned for its urban center, actually saw permits increase from around 4,000 to 6,000 new units.

But just because projects have construction permits, that doesn’t automatically mean they’ll be built. In San Francisco, for instance, several of the city’s biggest housing developments are reportedly stalled. And in Concord, a 16,000-unit megaproject still in the planning stages is on hold after the developer asked the city to approve the addition of about 3,000 more homes to offset growing costs.

“You have deals going to the sidelines because of interest rates,” said Chris Neighbor, president of SummerHill Homes, which develops houses, condos and apartments throughout the South Bay.

The rising cost of borrowing has sent typical mortgage rates doubling over the past year, to 6.3% last week, boosting monthly home payments by thousands of dollars and pushing many would-be buyers out of the market. In turn, developers are increasingly pulling back on new single-family homes and condos.

On top of that, financing projects has become more expensive as rates for construction loans also have jumped to around 6%. Neighbor said that’s adding roughly $20,000 to the per-unit cost of large multimillion-dollar developments – a seemingly small amount that can still make all the difference.

“That just upended all of the financial models that determine whether or not something is a feasible project,” said Chris Thornberg, an economist and founder of Beacon Economics.

Another roadblock: swelling material and labor costs since the start of the pandemic. Neighbor said inflation and supply chain issues for lumber and other materials, coupled with worker shortages, have sent hard costs soaring by around 20% the past few years, though prices are now starting to stabilize.

The cost of ​lumber, which has been especially volatile during the pandemic, recently returned to pre-COVID levels. Prices averaged around $377 per thousand board feet this month, down from a peak of $1,495 in May 2021.

Dean Wehrli, a principal with John Burns Real Estate Consulting, said tens of thousands of local layoffs by tech companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Salesforce also are having a “big impact on housing demand,” giving developers pause. And growing concerns about a recession freezing the local real estate market later this year are only increasing the uncertainty.

At the same time, the slow pandemic recovery of the region’s urban cores has some developers questioning whether it makes sense to pursue projects in city centers, where rents largely haven’t returned to pre-COVID prices.

“Why would you want to live in a downtown if it is dark and empty and boarded up?” asked Danny Haber, chief executive of Oakland-based developer oWOW.

Meanwhile, affordable housing developers are facing yet another set of challenges. Most low-income projects rely on public subsidies that have become increasingly oversubscribed in recent years and could soon be on the chopping block amid economic uncertainty.

Last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom, facing a projected $22.5 billion deficit, released a new budget proposal calling for $350 million in reductions from the $11.2 billion set aside for affordable housing programs over the next few years.

“In the tough times, that’s where we’ll see how committed we are to addressing this crisis,” Diaz said.

Matt Regan, a housing policy expert with the pro-business group Bay Area Council, blamed cities’ sometimes yearslong approval process for adding crushing costs to both affordable and market-rate projects. Local zoning rules have also put overly strict limits on how many homes can go where, he said.

While the state and local governments have phased in reforms, more needs to be done to rebalance the housing market in the Bay Area, Regan said.

“If it’s not already a gated country club for millionaires,” he said, “it will become that very soon.”

So how do people still get caught in the crosshairs of megastorms that have proven their ability to flood cars, ravage homes and claim lives? Have Californians—once roundly ridiculed as weather wimps—already become jaded to atmospheric rivers and overconfident that they can handle the hazards?

Meteorologists only really started digging into complicated questions about weather psychology like these around 20 years ago, according to Rebecca Morss, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

There’s a long list of reasons why people either can’t stay home in this extreme weather, or simply choose not to, so researchers are focusing on the best ways to help people recognize the risks. They want to avoid normalizing extreme events, or making people so afraid of weather reports that they shut down and reject the information entirely.

“Different people are going respond to different information in totally different ways—some people really trust authorities and science, some people don’t,” Morss said, explaining how political and cultural views complicate weather warnings. “There’s no one-size-fits-all solution. I think if this were an easy problem, we probably would have solved it by now.”

While scientific knowledge and forecast technology has improved by leaps and bounds over the last 30 years, Morss said crafting messaging that encourages emergency preparation without overstating the risks—a sure way to lose the public’s trust—is still a challenge, especially as extreme weather events become more frequent across the country due to climate change.

This messaging—and the collective response to it—has shifted significantly over the last few decades.

A lack of official warnings was partially to blame for hundreds of deaths during a 1976 flash flood in Colorado’s Big Thompson Canyon. But by 2011, after one of the deadliest tornados in U.S. history ripped through Missouri, researchers concluded that many residents had become desensitized to sirens and warnings.

At a basic level, she said it’s important to avoid meteorologist jargon, steer clear of complex information and repeat messaging to help people avoid finding themselves in a tragic situation.

“A lot of people have seen extreme weather on TV or been close to it, but how many of us have really experienced a truly life-threatening situation due to weather?” Morss pointed out. “It’s really hard to know exactly where (flooding) is going to happen, and it’s also just really hard for a person to imagine the place that they know and see every day suddenly being under all this water.”

Storms are unpredictable, she said, and it can be hard for someone to reliably judge when a normally safe roadway or other location has become an unsafe one—until it’s too late.

“We’ve all done things that we look back on afterwards and say, ‘Wow, I was so lucky,’” Morss said.

Significant storm systems in California are a routine occurrence, but Warren Blier, a meteorologist and science officer with the National Weather Service in Monterey, immediately knew the current set of storms was different.

“One day in late December, I was looking at computer model output through the extended portion of the forecast, and I remember thinking, ‘I just don’t see an end to this,’” Blier said. “What was so extraordinary was that even early on, it was starting to look to me like the possibility of just system after system after system.”

It was the first time he remembers seeing that kind of forecast since the El Niño winter of 1997-98.

“Astonished, that would be too strong,” Blier said of his reaction, “but it was more of a ‘wow’ moment—a series of ‘wow’ moments.”

While these weather conditions might generate more of a shrug for people in other parts of the country—from the Rockies and the Great Plains to the East Coast—there’s more potential for extreme impacts in a more vulnerable state like California.

He said it’s all about what people have learned and prepared for over time.

“I think people from other parts of the country who don’t routinely experience significant earthquakes find it a little mind-boggling that it doesn’t discomfort people here more, and the reverse is true when it comes to the weather stuff,” Blier said. “In Minnesota, you kind of know what weather you’re going to have, and things are designed around that. But for a generally reasonable, pleasant climate in California, when you suddenly throw in all these winds and all this water, (the state) is not really designed to accommodate all that because it’s not what routinely occurs.”

One of the most important developments in recent years is more collaboration between meteorologists and local emergency management workers—sharing weather expertise and predictions, and seeking out the best ways to disseminate that information to the community.

Daily weather briefings from the National Weather Service are sent to people like Kia Xiong, Santa Clara County’s emergency risk communications officer, who helps coordinate resources when those forecasts trigger the county’s inclement weather plans.

She said those plans activate outreach teams to reach unsheltered communities, especially along the creeks and waterways, while other public information officers blast messaging over Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, NextDoor and the county’s website.

Xiong said they stick to static posts with text and a photo—avoiding videos and gifs that relay information too slowly—to share what is happening, what people need to do and a URL or phone number to access resources. These posts are translated into English, Spanish, Chinese, Vietnamese and Tagalog, and include accessibility features like alt-text.

“That’s how we made sure that we’re reaching a broad audience and that no one is missed,” Xiong said. “The pandemic certainly changed the way we push out messaging, because now we have to make sure that all of our documentation, all of our social media posts, all of our graphics are accessible to everyone.”

But at the end of the day, community members are left to assess risks for themselves.

“Sometimes people do look out the window and see that it’s not raining as hard as the weather service or public government is saying,” Xiong said. “So it really is up to community members themselves to make those decisions.

“We can only say, ‘Hey, stay off the road’ so many times.”

A once-in-a-generation political battle is heating up in California as candidates begin to spar over Dianne Feinstein’s coveted Senate seat, promising reverberations that will shake up everything from our representation in the U.S. House to our local Bay Area elections.

It’s exceedingly rare — like snow in San Jose rare — for one of California’s two U.S. Senate seats to hit the ballot without an incumbent running. But that’s exactly what may happen in 2024 when many expect Feinstein, who is almost 90 and reportedly facing cognitive decline, to retire.

U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, an Orange County Democrat, made waves this past week when she became the first to officially declare her candidacy for Feinstein’s seat. And several of the Golden State’s representatives in the U.S. House, including locals Barbara Lee from the East Bay and Ro Khanna from Silicon Valley, and Adam Schiff from Southern California, have shown interest in the seat Feinstein has held since 1992.

Others, including Rep. Eric Swalwell from the East Bay — who was 12 when Feinstein took office — also have been mentioned as contenders. If they run, the scramble could open the door for a new generation of ambitious Democrats to slip into those vacated House seats, providing a chance for termed-out local mayors, county supervisors and city councilmembers to move up the political ladder without facing off against an entrenched opponent.

“There are a lot of people who will be looking at this as an opportunity,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University.

The election is still nearly two years away. And what’s more, Feinstein — who has been adamant she won’t leave office until she’s good and ready — hasn’t even hinted that she won’t seek reelection in 2024. But the fact that the feeding frenzy already has begun shows it’s going to be a crowded, dramatic and expensive race.

“It could be a cast of thousands,” joked Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of politics at San Jose State University. “These things don’t come up very often. It’s a gem of a position to have, that’s for sure.”

Landing a seat in the U.S. Senate is scoring one of the “ultimate” jobs in politics, Gerston said. It’s an exclusive club with just 100 members, and it can serve as a springboard to the presidency.

Porter got some blowback for the timing of her announcement — in the midst of damaging storms and flooding that have resulted in multiple deaths across the state. But she put pressure on other prospective candidates to make a move, McCuan said. Timing is important, he said, and no one wants to be last.

The next day, Lee told colleagues during a closed-door meeting that she plans to run — though she hasn’t formally announced her intentions, a source close to Lee confirmed to this news organization. Meanwhile, Khanna has said he’s considering a Senate run. There’s even speculation that Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is thought to have his eye ultimately on the presidency, might throw his hat in the ring — though he has publicly promised to serve all four years of his brand-new term as governor.

Feinstein, the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history, is a political legend in California and throughout the country. She has deep Bay Area roots, serving as a San Francisco supervisor and then mayor before joining the Senate. But her advanced age and recent questions over her ability to do her job have opened the floodgates to rivals eager to replace her.

“I think if she chooses to run she’s still hard to beat,” said Thad Kousser, a UC San Diego political science professor. “She’s not unbeatable. She’s no longer the single most popular politician in the state, as she once was.”

All that jostling for Feinstein’s seat will spur some interesting down-ticket races. With Porter no longer in the mix, it’s not unlikely that her battleground Southern California district will go to a Republican — potentially helping the GOP hold onto their control of the House.

Lee’s vacated House seat, on the other hand, would undoubtedly go to a Democrat — maybe someone like former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf or Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan, who recently lost her bid for Alameda County supervisor, Gerston said.

Amelia Ashley-Ward, publisher of the Sun-Reporter — a historic San Francisco newspaper serving the Black community — wants Feinstein to step down early and Newsom to appoint Lee to take her place. The Black community felt “robbed” when Newsom did not replace then-Sen. Kamala Harris — the only Black woman in the Senate when she became vice president — with another Black woman, Ashley-Ward said (though she loves Sen. Alex Padilla, who ultimately took that seat). Newsom has since promised to appoint a Black woman if Feinstein steps down.

“We’re underrepresented and we need to have our voices heard there,” Ashley-Ward said. “I think that it’s really, really needed.”

The hot-button race is also a fight for geographic representation, pitting Northern California candidates (Lee, Khanna and Swalwell) against SoCal ones (Porter and Schiff). Until Harris vacated her spot for the vice presidency, Northern Californians had occupied both of the Golden State’s Senate seats since Feinstein and Sen. Barbara Boxer, from Marin County, were elected together three decades ago.

But no matter who wins, they are likely to vote very similarly on key issues, Kousser said.

“It’s going to be a fight for different flavors of progressive Democrats,” he said.

Harmeet Dhillon, a San Francisco lawyer running for chair of the Republican National Committee, thinks while the candidates mentioned so far might garner votes in big, liberal cities, their left-leaning politics are too “extreme” to win fans statewide.

“These are not likable, crossover, appealing-to-moderates candidates in my opinion,” she said.

The race hasn’t drawn any Republican challengers yet, but Gerston is sure it will — though they will face a “steep hill to climb” in liberal California, he said.

With so much time to go until the race, there are sure to be plenty of shake-ups and surprise candidates. In addition to the big names, we also might see someone who is new to politics but is wealthy enough to finance their own campaign.

“There are enough people in this state,” Gerston said, “with lots of zeros behind their name, who if they want to run, could.”

— Berkeley Humane

Yoda, I am. Like the infamous grand master of Jedi Order, I believe size matters not. Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you?

— EBSPCA

Meet Chopper, a sweet senior looking for a new home. This low-key, laid-back low-rider has one walk speed: leisurely. The only time he breaks into a trot is when he spies a cat, and then he quickly stops to watch from a distance. Chopper ignores other dogs in his vicinity. He just wants to sniff, nap and get your attention and treats! Chopper’s big noggin is made to lie in a lap and be petted. He can be your shop dog, your couch potato, wherever you need a mature lovebug to brighten your day. Chopper weighs 53 pounds, and we estimate his age to be around 8. To meet this pet at Friends of the Alameda Animal Shelter (FAAS), call 510-337-8565 or visit alamedaanimalshelter.org/adopt online.

— FAAS

Tink is the sweetest little girl, born in her foster mom’s living room the day after her mother was rescued from an overcrowded residence. She was the tiniest of the litter and is the last of her family to find a home. Our tortie is initially quite shy, needing a little time to warm up and realize you’re not a predator, but once she does, look out! To meet our purr monster and lap sitter, contact Kay at kericksonttt@yahoo.com. Community Concern for Cats (CC4C) now holds weekend adoption events at Pet Food Express stores in Martinez and Concord plus our regular location at 1250-H Newell Ave. in Walnut Creek. Visit communityconcernforcats.org online for more information.

— CC4C

Finn is an extra-special ginger girl! Most ginger cats are male, and just a special few are female. Female ginger cats are well known to have calm and quiet personalities, and that’s Finn to a T! Finn is a people lover, lap lover, nap lover and playtime lover. Contact the staff at Milo Point Richmond for assistance at 220 S. Garrard Blvd. in Richmond from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. any day but Tuesdays. Our dedicated staff is on duty every day caring for our animals and have saved more than 39,000 lives in 28 years. For more details, visit milofoundation.org/contact-us.

— Milo Foundation

Mama Lana is a 1½-year-old domestic longhair beauty with a great personality and curly, fluffy tail. She loves people and will happily snuggle on your lap, purring away. But wait. Then there’s the Lana that gets the zoomies, flying around the house and playing with toys. She gets along with other cats and would make a great addition to your family. For more information about this or any other adoptable pets with the Contra Costa (CCSPCA), call Pat at 925-323-0667.

— CCSPCA

The storm likely will mark the final major blast of precipitation in the Bay Area for the foreseeable future, offering the region a chance to recover from deluges that have killed at least 19 people across California since late December. Still, meteorologists warned residents to remain vigilant a little while longer as flooding risks will remain until Monday due to extremely waterlogged soils.

“The ground is still saturated,” said Colby Goatley, a National Weather Service meteorologist. “There’s still going to be plenty of chance for runoff and localized flooding. We just want everyone to keep paying attention.

“But hopefully,” he added, “this is the light at the end of the tunnel.”

The weather system arrived a day after the White House approved a major disaster declaration for Santa Cruz, Sacramento and Merced counties — fast-tracking funding to a state that has tallied at least $1 billion in damages since Dec. 27. Tidal swells tore through the Central Coast city of Capitola earlier this month, while flooding rivers and mudslides inundated houses and blocked roadways across nearby Santa Cruz, Felton and Soquel. In the Central Valley, raging rivers overwhelmed levies and inundated several towns.

“California is grateful for President Biden’s swift approval of this critical support to communities reeling from these ongoing storms,” said Gov. Newsom in a statement on Saturday. “We’ll continue to work in lockstep with local, state and federal partners to help keep Californians safe and make sure our communities have the resources and assistance they need to rebuild and recover.”

The prospect of a break in the rain came as a relief to storm-battered residents in the Bay Area.

On Sunday, neighbors along Faircliff Street in Hayward looked on in shock at a house whose back half sat crumpled like an accordion from a mudslide over the weekend.

Ben Orellana had been preparing to watch the San Francisco 49ers play on Saturday when his wife noticed the hillside behind his house begin to move. Together, they watched through a rear window as the muddy hillside slowly overtook a 4-foot retaining wall before collapsing into his house. They had just moments to escape, Orellana said.

“We ran through the hallway and ran outside, because we weren’t sure how much of the house was going to go,” said Orellana, who spoke from a newly purchased phone after his old phone was buried in the slide. “You see this on the movies. You see this on TV. But you never think that’s going to be you.”

The hillside crumpled Orellana’s family room, fitness room and master bedroom and damaged his child’s bedroom. Authorities red-tagged the house, forcing Orellana and his family to find shelter at a nearby hotel.

“We’re just like in shock,” Orellana said. “We’re both hoping to wake up from this nasty nightmare.”

Even more rain began falling Sunday afternoon — further boosting unusually high rainfall totals from the past several weeks.

By Sunday morning, Oakland International Airport had already surpassed the total amount of water it usually gets from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30, an astounding 19.25 inches compared with its usual 18.68 inches in that time, according to data provided by the National Weather Service.

Other nearby cities are closing in on their yearly averages, with downtown San Francisco less than 3 inches away from that mark. San Jose needs roughly 6 more inches to break its yearly normal.

Another .5 to 1 inch of rain was expected to fall across San Francisco and Oakland from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening, while 1 to 1.5 inches of rain was forecasted to fall over San Jose, Livermore and Half Moon Bay. Forecasters predicted another 1-2 inches of rain would fall over the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Central Coast.

A flood watch remains in effect for almost the entire Bay Area through Monday evening. In addition, a coastal flood advisory also is in effect for areas along the Pacific Coast due to a combination of high tidal cycles, strong winds and heavy runoff.

Winds during the storm are expected to be less ferocious than previous atmospheric river storms, with gusts over the urban centers expected to hit 10 to 20 mph, while the higher elevations and coastal regions could see gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

“This is, thankfully, not quite as mean of a system as the last several events,” Goatley said.

As of about 3:30 p.m. Sunday, about a quarter to two-thirds of an inch of rain fell over most lower-lying portions of the Bay Area during the previous 24 hours, according to rain gauges maintained by the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. San Jose received up to .27 inches of rain in that span, while up to 1.37 inches fell in the Oakland hills. The Santa Cruz Mountains received anywhere from .59 to 1.34 inches of rain in that time.

To the east, the Sierra should once again get hammered with snow, with 12 to 18 inches of fresh powder expected to fall over Donner and Echo passes through Monday evening. Up to two feet of snow could fall over Ebbetts, Sonora and Tioga passes.

It adds to impressive snowfall totals across the Sierra Nevada in recent weeks, which have pushed the area’s snowpack to twice its normal average for this time of year.

About 7.5 feet of snow fell at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit during the week leading up to Sunday morning, the weather outpost reported. That included three and a half feet of snow from Friday through Sunday morning.

Already, as of Sunday morning, the weather station received 92% of the snow that it normally gets by April 1.

As part of the federal government’s response, the Small Business Administration announced Sunday it would be offering loans to businesses and residents in Merced, Sacramento and Santa Cruz counties who have faced damages to their property as a result of the weeks-long storms.

Across the Bay Area, the multiple weeks of wet weather left a multitude of roads closed Sunday afternoon, including:

• Santa Clara County: Both lanes of Highway 130 at Quimby Road;
• San Mateo County: Edgewood Road from Crestview Drive to I-280 and 4100 Stage Road to Pomponio Creek;
• Alameda County: Highway 84 from Fremont to Sunol;
• Santa Cruz County: Highway 236 from Little Basin Road to Big Basin Road and Highway 9 from lower Glen Arbor Road to upper Glen Arbor Road;
• Marin County: State Route 37 between Highway 101 and Atherton Avenue.

But relief could be on the way.

After that, sunny skies should return to the Bay Area through at least the first part of the weekend, with high temperatures likely to linger in the mid-to-upper 50s through at least Saturday for much of the region, including in San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose and Pittsburg.

The next incoming storm is taking aim at the Central Coast with less rainfall for the North Bay. Steady rain redevelops this afternoon into tonight with lingering showers and t-storms through Monday evening. Dry Tuesday then one last weak system on Weds before dry wx returns. pic.twitter.com/3UUR70zrUY

— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) January 15, 2023

24 hr : 21.5" (54.5 cm)
48 hr : 42.7" (108.5 cm)
7-day : 90.7" (230.5 cm)

We are now 204% of average precipitation to this point in the water year (Oct 1 – Sept 30) and we have 92% of our average peak seasonal #Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).#CAwx #CAwater #Weather pic.twitter.com/kO6tyoCjuF

— UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab (@UCB_CSSL) January 15, 2023