Conditions on the drying Colorado River are worsening faster than expected. States can’t agree on how to divide water cuts. Native American officials say they’re still largely shut out from the bargaining table and murmurs of a dystopian “water war” scenario now punctuate the conversations.
At risk are the country’s two largest reservoirs — lakes Powell and Mead — both of which are losing water. Levels could drop so low this year that Glen Canyon and Hoover dams would no longer be able to generate electricity for millions of people. By the end of next year, Powell’s water level could fall so low that its dam will only be able to send smaller quantities of water downstream to Arizona, California and Nevada.
Federal officials need the seven states in the Colorado River Basin to save at least 2 million acre-feet but water managers now acknowledge that number might need to be three times higher, enough to bury the entire state of Rhode Island under more than seven feet of water.
And that’s just so the basin can survive long enough to plan for the years ahead. Nobody wants to be the one responsible for turning down — or off — taps to farmers, ranchers, companies or even major cities.
Lake Mead’s record-low water level is allowing scientists to study sediment that hasn’t been exposed in nearly a century.
(John Locher/AP/FILE)
The Central Arizona Project carries Colorado River water on Oct. 25, 2022, outside suburbs in Phoenix, Arizona. The flight for aerial photography was provided by LightHawk. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
Large rotating sprinklers water a field growing feed for livestock on July 11, 2022, in Paragonah, Utah. Agriculture businesses have developed new irrigation methods that have less evaporation and water waste, but many small farms and ranches can’t afford to update their systems.
Crop circles are seen from the air on Oct. 24, 2022, near Dateland, Arizona. Agriculture in Arizona holds some of the most senior water rights to Colorado River water in the basin. The flight for aerial photography was provided by LightHawk. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
Light shines off the water flowing in a section of the Central Arizona Project on Oct. 24, 2022, near Phoenix, Arizona. The diversion canal diverts water from the Colorado River to support southern Arizona. The flight for aerial photography was provided by LightHawk. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
The Colorado River is the border between California, to the left, and Arizona, to the right, seen from the air on Oct. 24, 2022, south of Blythe, California. The flight for aerial photography was provided by LightHawk. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
Drought, overconsumption, and climate change, are main factors dissipating the amount of Colorado River water that will reach the Sea of Cortez on its journey through the Colorado River Delta on October 24, 2022 in Baja California, Mexico. The flight for aerial photography was provided by LightHawk. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
Lake Mead on the Colorado River — the nation’s largest reservoir — is rapidly losing water amid a years-long drought and overuse.
(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Joe Bernal works on his family’s farm on Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022, in Fruita, Colo. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S. (Hugh Carey/The Colorado Sun via AP)
A man walks between a canal carrying water from the Colorado River and a border wall separating San Luis Rio Colorado, Mexico with San Luis, Ariz., on Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022, in San Luis Rio Colorado, Mexico. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S.(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
A worker diverts water as a sprinkler system is installed for alfalfa at the Cox family farm Monday, Aug. 15, 2022, near Brawley, Calif. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
The Colorado River passes through Grand Junction, Aug. 24, 2022, in Mesa County, Colo. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S. (Hugh Carey/The Colorado Sun via AP)
FILE – A formerly sunken boat sits upright into the air with its stern stuck in the mud along the shoreline of Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, June 10, 2022, near Boulder City, Nev. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
A truck tire once in the water as part of a marina sits on dry ground as water levels have dropped near the Callville Bay Resort & Marina in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2022, near Boulder City, Nev. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S. (AP Photo/John Locher)
In this photo provided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover presides over the signing of the Colorado River Compact in Santa Fe, N.M., on Nov. 24, 1922. Seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation via AP)
Garnett Querta carries a hose as he fills his water truck on the Hualapai reservation Monday, Aug. 15, 2022, near Peach Springs, Ariz. The divvying up between Colorado River Basin states never took into account Indigenous Peoples or many others, and from the start the calculation of who should get what amount of that water may never have been balanced. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Delanna Mart stands on a dock at a lake on Ute Indian Tribe of the Uintah and Ouray Reservation, Monday, July 25, 2022, in Fort Duchesne, Utah. The divvying up between Colorado River Basin states never took into account Indigenous Peoples or many others, and from the start the calculation of who should get what amount of that water may never have been balanced. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Water flows along the All-American Canal Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022, near Winterhaven, Calif. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Fisherman on a boat float on the Colorado River, June 27, 2021, near Burns, Colo. In November 1922, seven land-owning white men brokered a deal to allocate water from the Colorado River, which winds through the West and ends in Mexico. During the past two decades, pressure has intensified on the river as the driest 22-year stretch in the past 1,200 years has gripped the southwestern U.S. (Hugh Carey/The Colorado Sun via AP)
The Metropolitan Water District will repair a leak in a water delivery pipeline next month. The repairs will take place from Sept. 6-20, and will impact several dozen cities including Beverly Hills, Burbank, Glendale, Long Beach, Pasadena, San Fernando and Torrance. Officials discovered a leak in the 36-mile Upper Feeder pipeline, which delivers water from the Colorado River to Southern California, earlier this year. (Courtesy of Metropolitan Water District of Southern California)
The Metropolitan Water District will repair a leak in a water delivery pipeline next month. The repairs will take place from Sept. 6-20, and will impact dozens of cities including Beverly Hills, Burbank, Glendale, Long Beach, Pasadena, San Fernando and Torrance. Officials discovered a leak in the 36-mile Upper Feeder pipeline, which delivers water from the Colorado River to Southern California, earlier this year. (Courtesy of Metropolitan Water District of Southern California)
A sign marks the water line from 2002 near Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Saturday, July 9, 2022, near Boulder City, Nev. The largest U.S. reservoir has shrunken to a record low amid a punishing drought and the demands of 40 million people in seven states who are sucking the Colorado River dry. (AP Photo/John Locher)
FILE – Visitors view the dramatic bend in the Colorado River at the popular Horseshoe Bend in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, in Page, Ariz., on Sept. 9, 2011. Some 40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming draw from the Colorado River and its tributaries. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is expected to publish hydrology projections on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, that will trigger agreed-upon cuts to states that rely on the river. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)
This photo taken Monday, April 25, 2022, by the Southern Nevada Water Authority shows the top of Lake Mead drinking water Intake No. 1 above the surface level of the Colorado River reservoir behind Hoover Dam. The intake is the uppermost of three in the deep, drought-stricken lake that provides Las Vegas with 90% of its drinking water supply. (Southern Nevada Water Authority via AP)
FILE – In this Nov. 19, 2012, file photo, water is released into the Colorado River at the Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz. The elevation of Lake Powell fell below 3,525 feet (1,075 meters), a record low that surpasses a critical threshold at which officials have long warned signals their ability to general hydropower is in jeopardy. (Rob Schumacher/The Arizona Republic via AP, File)
Water from an emergency reserve, for use during drought conditions, sprays from a well pipe and into a canal for farmers to use on May 8, 2008 near Bakersfield, California. Opening of the Kern County reserve wells began earlier this week. Urgent calls for California residents to conserve water have grown in the wake of the final Sierra Nevada Mountains snow survey of the season indicating a snow depth and water content at only 67 percent of normal levels. The Sierra snowpack is vital to California water supplies and officials are preparing plans for mandatory water conservation. In Southern California, the Metropolitan Water District, cut deliveries to farmers by nearly a third and growers in Fresno and Kings counties have not planted about 200,000 acres of crops, a third of the land irrigated by Westlands Water District. Many farmers are now selling their government-subsidized water for profit instead of using it to plant crops. Much of the California water supply comes from the Colorado River where a continuing eight-year drought has lowered water storage to roughly half of capacity. Dry conditions across the West have already doubled the wildfires this year causing fire officials to brace for a possible repeat of the devastating 2007 southern California wildfire season. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)
As severe drought grips parts of the Western United States, a below-average flow of water is expected to flow through the Colorado River Basin into two of its biggest reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead. (CNN)
FILE – In this May 22, 2021, file photo, water drips from a faucet near boat docks sitting on dry land at the Browns Ravine Cove area of drought-stricken Folsom Lake, in Folsom, Calif. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California declared a water supply alert for the first time in seven years and is asking residents to voluntarily conserve Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2021, hoping to lessen the need for more severe actions such as reducing water supplies to member agencies. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California receives about half its water from the Colorado River and State Water Project. (AP Photo/Josh Edelson, File)
FILE – In this July 28, 2014, file photo, lightning strikes over Lake Mead near Hoover Dam that impounds Colorado River water at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Arizona. The sweeping $1 trillion infrastructure bill approved by the Senate this week includes funding for Western water projects that farmers, water providers and environmentalists say are badly needed across the parched region. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
1939: Treaty Oak in Austin, Texas near the west bank of the Colorado river, thought to be over 500 years old. Comanche and Tejas Indians met for tribal rites beneath it and it is supposed to be the place where the first boundary line treaty between the Indians and the settlers was drawn up. (Photo by Three Lions/Getty Images)
Local, state and federal officials often mention using more efficient irrigation methods on cropland and they discuss accounting for water lost to evaporation or as it’s transported across thousands of miles of desert terrain. But neither of those two — necessary — steps will be enough.
The Denver Post spoke to experts across the region about ideas, both substantive and farfetched, that could save enough water to keep the Colorado River Basin afloat. Nobody could say precisely how much water a given strategy might provide but each of them acknowledged that officials throughout the American West must think creatively and be prepared to use any and all available resources.
The gist: The Pacific Ocean has more than enough water to supplement whatever the Colorado River has lost. But, as it is, ocean water is not safe to drink, nor can it be used on crops. Running ocean water through a desalination plant can filter out its dangerously high salt content, bacteria and other impurities to make it safe for use.
Could it work? The technology is already in use but no plants in existence can replace the amount of water the Colorado River is losing. Plus, desalination is expensive, time consuming and the waste it produces would create new problems.
Could it work? Many cities and states are already using these strategies, though the amount of water that can be recycled and reused is limited by population size and legal constraints.
Could it work? Water is already transported all across the country using pipelines and canals. But this is an expensive, time-consuming undertaking that would come with substantial political challenges. In addition, many other regions across the country are suffering droughts as well.
The gist: By spraying a chemical compound — typically silver iodide — into certain types of clouds, seeders can agitate super-chilled water particles inside, causing them to freeze and fall to the ground as snow.
The gist: The more people, industries and businesses that call the American West their home, the more water those communities will need. Cities and states can encourage current residents to use less water, especially with aspects like water-dependent lawns. And they can require new homes and businesses to ensure they have a water supply before building.
Could it work? Cities across the West are taking steps to grow responsibly and sustainably. But new laws depend on the political atmosphere of a given city or state and can take time to enact. Plus, cities and businesses only account for a fraction of overall water use.
The gist: State and federal officials could use huge chunks of now-available money to “buy and dry” farmland, farmers could periodically let their fields lay fallow or they can switch to less water-consumptive crops. Likely, the basin needs a combination of all of these combined with efficiency improvements throughout the industry to save water from the irrigating process.
Could it work? Averaging the seven states together, agriculture consumes about 75% of the Colorado River’s water, so the biggest potential savings will likely stem from changes to the industry. Changes would be costly and depend on variables like the types of crops and the region in which they’re being grown. The agriculture industry is also a major employer across the West upon which many other industries depend. Agriculture also provides food across the world, so changes could disrupt the supply and cost of food.
Could it work? Finding ways to reduce demand for water across the Colorado River Basin encompasses many other strategies and has been described as the way of the future. Some aspects only qualify as short-term solutions, though. They must be followed by a long-term strategy.
The gist: By legally cementing the water rights for the tribes depending on the Colorado River, state and federal governments could begin to lease, buy or otherwise compensate the tribes for their water. In addition, this would give the tribes better access to their own water, which they need to drink, farm and develop their communities.
Could it work? State and federal officials must work with Native American tribes to solve the Colorado River’s water crisis. But governments have a poor track record of working with the tribes, sewing generations of mistrust. Many of the tribes remain without clean drinking water and the necessary infrastructure to access what’s rightfully theirs.
Conrad Swanson covers Denver politics on The Denver Post’s political team. An Iowa native, he joined the paper in November 2019 after stints at the Colorado Springs Gazette, Lawrence Journal-World (Kansas) and Sioux City Journal (Iowa). He graduated from the University of Iowa with a bachelor’s degree in journalism and a focus in economics. He is a member of the Investigative Reporters and Editors organization and was awarded a 2019 fellowship for the National Press Foundation’s Spotlight on Statehouse and Local Reporting Program. He also won awards for sustained coverage in Colorado and political and investigative coverage in Kansas.
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