The final round in a three-week siege of deadly winter storms is expected to depart the Bay Area by Monday evening, capping a devastating run of atmospheric rivers that caused flooding and mudslides across California, filled once-parched reservoirs and pounded the Sierra Nevada with heaps of snow.
The storm likely will mark the final major blast of precipitation in the Bay Area for the foreseeable future, offering the region a chance to recover from deluges that have killed at least 19 people across California since late December. Still, meteorologists warned residents to remain vigilant a little while longer as flooding risks will remain until Monday due to extremely waterlogged soils.
“The ground is still saturated,” said Colby Goatley, a National Weather Service meteorologist. “There’s still going to be plenty of chance for runoff and localized flooding. We just want everyone to keep paying attention.
“But hopefully,” he added, “this is the light at the end of the tunnel.”
The weather system arrived a day after the White House approved a major disaster declaration for Santa Cruz, Sacramento and Merced counties — fast-tracking funding to a state that has tallied at least $1 billion in damages since Dec. 27. Tidal swells tore through the Central Coast city of Capitola earlier this month, while flooding rivers and mudslides inundated houses and blocked roadways across nearby Santa Cruz, Felton and Soquel. In the Central Valley, raging rivers overwhelmed levies and inundated several towns.
“California is grateful for President Biden’s swift approval of this critical support to communities reeling from these ongoing storms,” said Gov. Newsom in a statement on Saturday. “We’ll continue to work in lockstep with local, state and federal partners to help keep Californians safe and make sure our communities have the resources and assistance they need to rebuild and recover.”
The prospect of a break in the rain came as a relief to storm-battered residents in the Bay Area.
On Sunday, neighbors along Faircliff Street in Hayward looked on in shock at a house whose back half sat crumpled like an accordion from a mudslide over the weekend.
Ben Orellana had been preparing to watch the San Francisco 49ers play on Saturday when his wife noticed the hillside behind his house begin to move. Together, they watched through a rear window as the muddy hillside slowly overtook a 4-foot retaining wall before collapsing into his house. They had just moments to escape, Orellana said.
“We ran through the hallway and ran outside, because we weren’t sure how much of the house was going to go,” said Orellana, who spoke from a newly purchased phone after his old phone was buried in the slide. “You see this on the movies. You see this on TV. But you never think that’s going to be you.”
The hillside crumpled Orellana’s family room, fitness room and master bedroom and damaged his child’s bedroom. Authorities red-tagged the house, forcing Orellana and his family to find shelter at a nearby hotel.
“We’re just like in shock,” Orellana said. “We’re both hoping to wake up from this nasty nightmare.”
Even more rain began falling Sunday afternoon — further boosting unusually high rainfall totals from the past several weeks.
By Sunday morning, Oakland International Airport had already surpassed the total amount of water it usually gets from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30, an astounding 19.25 inches compared with its usual 18.68 inches in that time, according to data provided by the National Weather Service.
Other nearby cities are closing in on their yearly averages, with downtown San Francisco less than 3 inches away from that mark. San Jose needs roughly 6 more inches to break its yearly normal.
Another .5 to 1 inch of rain was expected to fall across San Francisco and Oakland from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening, while 1 to 1.5 inches of rain was forecasted to fall over San Jose, Livermore and Half Moon Bay. Forecasters predicted another 1-2 inches of rain would fall over the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Central Coast.
A flood watch remains in effect for almost the entire Bay Area through Monday evening. In addition, a coastal flood advisory also is in effect for areas along the Pacific Coast due to a combination of high tidal cycles, strong winds and heavy runoff.
Winds during the storm are expected to be less ferocious than previous atmospheric river storms, with gusts over the urban centers expected to hit 10 to 20 mph, while the higher elevations and coastal regions could see gusts of 20 to 30 mph.
“This is, thankfully, not quite as mean of a system as the last several events,” Goatley said.
As of about 3:30 p.m. Sunday, about a quarter to two-thirds of an inch of rain fell over most lower-lying portions of the Bay Area during the previous 24 hours, according to rain gauges maintained by the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. San Jose received up to .27 inches of rain in that span, while up to 1.37 inches fell in the Oakland hills. The Santa Cruz Mountains received anywhere from .59 to 1.34 inches of rain in that time.
To the east, the Sierra should once again get hammered with snow, with 12 to 18 inches of fresh powder expected to fall over Donner and Echo passes through Monday evening. Up to two feet of snow could fall over Ebbetts, Sonora and Tioga passes.
It adds to impressive snowfall totals across the Sierra Nevada in recent weeks, which have pushed the area’s snowpack to twice its normal average for this time of year.
About 7.5 feet of snow fell at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit during the week leading up to Sunday morning, the weather outpost reported. That included three and a half feet of snow from Friday through Sunday morning.
Already, as of Sunday morning, the weather station received 92% of the snow that it normally gets by April 1.
As part of the federal government’s response, the Small Business Administration announced Sunday it would be offering loans to businesses and residents in Merced, Sacramento and Santa Cruz counties who have faced damages to their property as a result of the weeks-long storms.
Across the Bay Area, the multiple weeks of wet weather left a multitude of roads closed Sunday afternoon, including:
- Santa Clara County: Both lanes of Highway 130 at Quimby Road;
- San Mateo County: Edgewood Road from Crestview Drive to I-280 and 4100 Stage Road to Pomponio Creek;
- Alameda County: Highway 84 from Fremont to Sunol;
- Santa Cruz County: Highway 236 from Little Basin Road to Big Basin Road and Highway 9 from lower Glen Arbor Road to upper Glen Arbor Road;
- Marin County: State Route 37 between Highway 101 and Atherton Avenue.
But relief could be on the way.
Sunny skies should return on Tuesday before a final dash of precipitation hits the Bay Area on Wednesday afternoon. That system should be nothing like the previous line of storms over the last few weeks, though. Rainfall totals on Wednesday are expected to barely reach .1 inches for most of the region during that weather system, Goatley said.
After that, sunny skies should return to the Bay Area through at least the first part of the weekend, with high temperatures likely to linger in the mid-to-upper 50s through at least Saturday for much of the region, including in San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose and Pittsburg.
The next incoming storm is taking aim at the Central Coast with less rainfall for the North Bay. Steady rain redevelops this afternoon into tonight with lingering showers and t-storms through Monday evening. Dry Tuesday then one last weak system on Weds before dry wx returns. pic.twitter.com/3UUR70zrUY
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 15, 2023
24 hr ❄️: 21.5" (54.5 cm)
48 hr ❄️: 42.7" (108.5 cm)
7-day ❄️: 90.7" (230.5 cm)We are now 204% of average precipitation to this point in the water year (Oct 1 – Sept 30) and we have 92% of our average peak seasonal #Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).#CAwx #CAwater #Weather pic.twitter.com/kO6tyoCjuF
— UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab (@UCB_CSSL) January 15, 2023
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